Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
178 FXUS63 KLBF 010538 AFDLBF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 1238 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Severe weather potential is of concern Monday afternoon and evening. - Additional chances for scattered thunderstorms will come Wednesday afternoon and evening. - Drier, cooler and more stable weather is expected Thursday and Friday. Moderating temperatures, back to normal for this time of year, for the weekend. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 237 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Surface high pressure is located across the Mississippi Valley region this afternoon. Return low-level southeast flow has developed across Nebraska on the backside of the high. Low-level moisture (surface dew points) are gradually rising as the southeast flow originates from a tropical airmass (dew points 75-80F) across OK, AR, LA and eastern TX. The best low-level moisture is being transported through western KS into eastern CO and the Nebraska Panhandle. Scattered thunderstorms will develop off the Laramie Range within the increasingly moist upslope flow this afternoon. Shear in this area is strong with modest instability, and a few supercells will likely result. These will attempt to move eastward into the Nebraska Panhandle late this afternoon and evening but will likely struggle. Low-level lapse rates are poor as you move into this area with weak CAPE. Shear is strong but the previous mentioned factors will limit storm intensity and coverage as it moves eastward. WAA in the mid-levels then increases after dark along with an increasing southerly low-level jet. The nose of the jet is pointed into central and eastern Nebraska. Expecting the initiation of elevated convection to occur across central Nebraska after midnight...becoming more widespread and organized as it tracks into eastern Nebraska by sunrise Monday morning. Attention then turns to the severe potential Monday afternoon and evening. Southwest flow aloft will increase as a shortwave embedded within the flow approaches. At the surface, low pressure will deepen across northeast Colorado. A warm front will lift northward and be located somewhere just south of I-80 by Monday afternoon. Low-level moisture will pool north of the boundary with surface dew points rising into the lower 70s. This moisture will combine with daytime heating and steep mid-level lapse rates...creating potential extreme instability. There will be a capping inversion in place, but forcing from the approaching shortwave should help to overcome the cap with convection developing by around 4 PM CDT. The storm mode will be supercells, with the area near and just north of the warm front looking quite favorable for tornado development. The exact location of the warm front will have to be monitored carefully. Storms will likely grow upscale into more of a line/QLCS type system as the activity tracks toward eastern Nebraska Monday evening. Tuesday looks much quieter as a shortwave tracks across the northern plains and drives high pressure southward into the region. Return southerly low-level flow develops again Wednesday. As low-level moisture returns to the area some isolated/scattered late afternoon convection could develop. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 237 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Upper level low pressure will move slowly move across southern Canada Thursday into the weekend. A cold front will slide southeast through the area Thursday with a drier airmass moving into the area Friday into the weekend. Only slight chances for precipitation are expected during this time along with cooler temperatures. In fact, Thursday and Friday highs only reach the 70s across northern Nebraska. Highs do moderate some for the weekend, ranging from the 80s across northern Nebraska to the lower 90s across southwest Nebraska. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1237 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024 As a line of showers and thunderstorms moves across western Nebraska, so will a widespread area of stratus. The stratus will be the cause of MVFR to IFR ceilings through the afternoon hours. As showers appear to be weakening, will omit from TAFs for time being, but may need amend if rain showers hold together. Models have backed off on the low level jet, so have removed LLWS as well. There will likely be another round of showers and thunderstorms later this afternoon into the evening, however confidence in location is still low. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Taylor LONG TERM...Taylor AVIATION...Richie