169
FXUS62 KKEY 060932
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
532 AM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 340 AM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024
There are only so many ways we can say that we are waking up to
another quiet morning along the Keys, but here we are. Variable
wind directions have resulted in some areas of convergence, and
the KBYX radar has shown a couple of very small, and very short-
lived showers. The variability in the wind direction will continue
into the morning before a uniform east to southeasterly direction
resumes, so it`s possible another shower or two will pop up on
radar before the morning update is issued later. Satellite obs
are showing a mix of some lower level clouds and a blanket of
higher clouds across the forecast area, but that blanket is thin
enough to still allow plenty of sunshine through once it rises.
Today is essentially going to look like yesterday with mostly
sunny skies, light breezes, and heat indices in the afternoon
approaching (but not quite hitting) advisory criteria.

Tomorrow still looks to be the better chance for measurable
rainfall. Opted to keep the 40 percent PoPs that were inherited as
the surge of moisture expected coupled with an area of confluence
aiding in lift could lead to better organized shower and
thunderstorm activity. It is still too difficult to say just how
much rainfall could come from any showers, but the overall message
of a possibly wet day still stands. From Monday onward, ridging
will keep us in an easterly flow that will allow periods of
enhanced moisture. Since this is a typical summertime pattern,
have opted to keep the climatological PoPs through the end of the
week.

All of this to say, it is summertime in Florida.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 340 AM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024
here are no watches, warnings, or advisories currently in effect
for the Florida Keys coastal waters. From synopsis, overall light
to gentle southeasterly breezes will continue through the
weekend, but will become more moderate on Monday and Tuesday due
to some shifting in the overall weather pattern. By Wednesday,
these breezes will slacken again.



&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 340 AM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024
VFR conditions will prevail at both island terminals through the TAF
package. There are some indications of isolated showers and
thunderstorms developing around 06/12z with the risk continuing
through 06/18z. However, due to the uncertainty in timing and
placement, decided to leave VCSH out of the TAFs for now. Near-
surface winds will remain out of the east to southeast at 3 to 8
knots.


&&

.CLIMATE...
On this day in Keys Weather History, the daily record warm low
temperature of 85F was recorded in Key West set back in 2018.
Temperature records for Key West date back to 1872.

Also, the daily record warm low temperature of 86F was recorded in
Marathon set back in 1957. This is also the warmest low temperature
ever recorded during the month of July. Temperature records for
Marathon date back to 1950.

OF NOTE
In 2021, Tropical Storm Elsa moved roughly 55 miles west of
Key West late July 5th through early afternoon July 6th, with the
center of the storm passing in between Key West and the Dry
Tortugas. It produced maximum sustained winds of 52 mph at Key West
international Airport and 48 knots at Smith Shoal Light, with wind
gusts to 70 mph and 58 knots, respectively. Rainfall totals were the
highest in Key West as well with Key West International Airport
measuring 4.49 inches, the NWS Key West office measuring 6.62
inches, with a maximum rainfall amount of 7.54 inches on Catherine
Street in Key West. No significant impacts were noted from Tropical
Storm Elsa with the exception of significant street flooding of 6 to
10 inches in depth in Old Town and Midtown Key West as strong rain
bands with high rainfall rates moved across the island. Otherwise,
most damage was confined to widely-separated downed tree limbs from
Key West to the Saddlebunch Keys due to nearly 13 hours of Tropical-
Storm-Force gusts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West  90  82  90  82 /  30  20  40  40
Marathon  89  82  89  82 /  30  20  40  40

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...DP
Aviation/Nowcasts....MJV
Data Acquisition.....MJV

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