Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
009 FXUS62 KKEY 070230 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1030 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 829 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024 Currently - Nebulous surface pressure gradient is in place across the area due to an Atlantic ridge across Florida and an inverted trough tucked in over the northern Bahamas. This along with day time heating over Florida has produced light and varying breezes across the area. Weak to moderate lower to mid level ridging is in place across our area, partially an indirect result of Beryl in the western Gulf of Mexico and a stacked low east of the Carolinas. However, a lower level swath of moisture associated with the inverted trough has swept into South Florida and the Keys. Consequently, the earlier drier lower levels has moistened up considerably. This evenings sounding indicated precipitable water is now around 2.2 inches. This is a jump of over a quarter of an inch since this morning and over .6 inches in 24 hours. Convective forcing is limited and low level instability is limited. As a result, shower activity has been isolated at best through the evening hours. Short Term Update - The effects of day time heating will wear off through the night. In addition, the previously mentioned inverted trough will shuffle off a bit to the north. As a result, the light and variable breezes should eventually firm up weakly out of the southeast to south. Forecast soundings and plan views suggest the swath of lower level moisture will remain draped across our area, but also that low level instability will remain limited. This along with weak surface flows will not be all that supportive of convective activity. As a result, convective activity should remain isolated at best. Expect overnight lows to settle in the lower to mid 80s with dew points in the mid to upper 70s. && .MARINE... Issued at 829 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024 The combination of day time heating, along with a ridge across the Florida Peninsula and a weak inverted trough washing out over the northern Bahamas has resulted in light and variable breezes across the area this evening. Expect winds to firm up a bit out of the southeast to south through the night as the effects of earlier day time heating wash out and the local flow becomes more representative of the synoptic setup and the inverted trough weakens further and lifts a bit further north. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 829 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024 VFR conditions will prevail at the island terminals. There will be a slight chance for spells of sub VFR conditions due to isolated convective activity. Surface winds will start light and variable, becoming light out of the southeast to south. && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...11 Aviation/Nowcasts....11 Data Acquisition.....AJP Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest