Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
431 FXUS62 KKEY 051455 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1055 AM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1055 AM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024 It has been an anomalously dry morning across the Florida Keys. This morning`s 12Z sounding sampled a PW value of 1.55", which is near the 25th percentile for today. There was a very noticeable dry layer sampled in the lower levels which suggests that maybe a slug of Saharan Air made it into our area this morning. Looking outside, there is almost a milky tinge, which also suggests SAL. Something else that is likely contributing to our quiet morning is the area of subsidence on the northeastern side of Beryl that is now over the Yucatan Peninsula. All of this has lead to KBYX detecting no meteorological echoes and mostly clear skies. Temperatures have already soared into the upper 80s and dew points are in the upper 70s. Heat indices along the island chain have easily breached 100 degrees, and winds will continue to trend downward this afternoon, so the air will start to feel even more stagnant if that is even possible. Have decided to nudge rain chances down to 10% for the remainder of the day, which is still above most MOS guidance values. The Upper Keys are the most likely to see any rainfall if it is able to drift southward off the mainland, otherwise, it will be a mostly dry day. Temperatures will reach the lower 90s in most island communities today thanks to the abundant sunshine. Remember to stay hydrated and take frequent breaks if spending time outdoors today. && .MARINE... Issued at 1055 AM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024 There are no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect for the Florida Keys coastal waters. From synopsis, light to gentle east to southeast breezes will continue into the weekend as high pressure settles in over the area. These gentle breezes will veer to the southeast and south on Sunday before backing to a more easterly direction and returning to gentle to moderate on Monday and Tuesday. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 1055 AM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024 VFR conditions will prevail at both island terminals through 12z Saturday morning. Near-surface winds will remain out of the east to southeast at 6 to 10 knots. && .CLIMATE... In 2021, Tropical Storm Elsa moved roughly 55 miles west of Key West late July 5th through early afternoon July 6th, with the center of the storm passing in between Key West and the Dry Tortugas. It produced maximum sustained winds of 52 mph at Key West international Airport and 48 knots at Smith Shoal Light, with wind gusts to 70 mph and 58 knots, respectively. Rainfall totals were the highest in Key West as well with Key West International Airport measuring 4.49 inches, the NWS Key West office measuring 6.62 inches, with a maximum rainfall amount of 7.54 inches on Catherine Street in Key West. No significant impacts were noted from Tropical Storm Elsa with the exception of significant street flooding of 6 to 10 inches in depth in Old Town and Midtown Key West as strong rain bands with high rainfall rates moved across the island. Otherwise, most damage was confined to widely- separated downed tree limbs from Key West to the Saddlebunch Keys due to nearly 13 hours of Tropical-Storm-Force gusts. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 91 83 90 83 / 10 20 20 20 Marathon 90 82 90 83 / 10 20 20 20 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...NB Aviation/Nowcasts....BT Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest