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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
955 FXUS62 KKEY 151940 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 340 PM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 340 PM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Showers and thunderstorms will continue to spread across the Keys waters as we go into this evening, but it is still difficult to say if any portion of the island chain will see anything from this. As the current activity progresses, it is entirely possible for any shower or thunderstorm to cross over land, bringing a quick round of rain and possibly some lightning. Uncertainty aside, we can simply say that the atmosphere as a whole will continue to be active tonight, but whether or not we end up with measurable rainfall in the back yard is harder to say. The dominant Atlantic ridging will continue to cause easterly to southeasterly breezes, some clouds mixing in with our sunshine, and toasty temperatures. Multiple pulses of moisture overall will continue to keep PoPs around the 20 percent to 30 percent range, but a sliver of drier air transversing the forecast area sometime either Tuesday or Wednesday may offer a short-lived break from the typical summertime activity we have seen. It is worth noting that heat indices during the afternoon will continue to pass the 100F mark, but dewpoints in the coming days may be low enough to keep us below criteria, so it is difficult to say whether or not there may be any more issued after the one we have today. && .MARINE... Issued at 340 PM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Atlantic ridging will remain across the Florida Peninsula through the duration of the forecast. This will result in gentle to moderate easterly to southeasterly breezes across Keys waters. Winds will tend to surge in the evening and night hours and lull during the day. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 340 PM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024 VFR conditions are expected to prevail at both EYW and MTH for the rest of today and into tonight. Showers and thunderstorms continue to pulse around the western portion of the Keys resulting in VCTS at EYW. VCSH returns to both terminals this evening as some model solutions suggest a reforming of scattered convection along the island chain. Amendments will be required for more specific impacts if more organized showers or thunderstorms develop and pass through. Near surface winds will be out of the east to southeast at 7 to 11 knots. && .CLIMATE... On this day in 1733, a Hurricane between Key Biscayne and Key Vaca sunk several Spanish ships, causing 56 deaths. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 83 90 83 91 / 40 40 30 30 Marathon 82 89 83 90 / 40 40 30 30 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for FLZ076>078. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...DP Aviation/Nowcasts....JAM Data Acquisition.....DR Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest