Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
959 FXUS62 KKEY 170801 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 401 AM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 400 AM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024 Currently - A surface through mid level Atlantic ridge reaches westward across the Florida Peninsula and into the Gulf of Mexico. This is generating gentle east to southeasterly breezes across the area. Meanwhile, weak ridging is in place aloft, sandwiched between a couple of weak upper lows near the Texas Coast and northeast of the Bahamas. A swath of drier air through the lower levels span the area but is on its way out with increased moisture upstream. With that said, there is has been little to no shower activity in recent hours. Surface conditions are seasonable with temperatures in the mid 80s and dew points in the mid 70s. Forecast - The Atlantic ridge will remain across the Florida Peninsula through the week, keeping breezes gentle out of the east to southeast. The upper low meandering off the Bahamas will continue to weaken in place and not play a significant roll in local weather. The lower levels are expected to moisten some today a the dry slot departs to our west. As a result, expect rain chances to edge upwards to seasonable through the week. Temperatures will range near normal with highs near to slightly above 90, lows in the lower to mid 80s, and dew points in the mid to upper 70s. Heat indices will generally peak at near or slightly below Heat Advisory criteria. For now will not raise a Heat Advisory. The Atlantic ridge is expected to lift northward into North Florida and the southeastern United States this weekend. This will result in modestly freshening breezes. The environment will remain sufficiently moist and unstable to keep rain chances near normal. No significant temperatures trend is expected. There is the potential for higher rain chances late in the weekend into early next week. This will be due to increasing lower level moisture and confluence associated with an inverted trough riding westward into our area. While there is still a good amount of uncertainty regarding timing, all guidance have been consistent in the passage of this trough. && .MARINE... Issued at 400 AM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024 An Atlantic ridge will stretch westward across the Florida Peninsula through the week, maintaining gentle to moderate east to southeasterly breezes. Expect winds to peak in the evening and night hours and lull during the day. Winds are expected to freshen this weekend as the Atlantic ridge lifts northward into North Florida and the southeastern United States. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 400 AM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024 VFR conditions will prevail at the EYW and MTH terminals through Wednesday evening, with rain chances below normal for this time of year. Surface winds will remain from the east to southeast around 10 knots. && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...11 Aviation/Nowcasts....Jacobson Data Acquisition.....Jacobson Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest