Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
035 FXUS62 KKEY 180816 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 416 AM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 400 AM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024 Currently - A surface through mid level Atlantic ridge remains anchored across the Florida Peninsula. This is resulting in mostly easterly breezes that peak in the evening and night hours and lulling during the day. A weak forced ridge is aligned over Florida and the eastern Gulf of Mexico, sandwiched between troughing off the Texas Coast and a stagnating upper low northeast of the Bahamas. Last evenings sounding indicated precipitable water only slightly above normal at near 2 inches. Inhibition was limited with a seasonably high CAPE. While the environment is supportive of deeper convection, some drier air in the lower levels and dominant anticyclonic flow has limited overnight activity. Surface conditions are also seasonable with temperatures in the mid 80s and dew points in the mid to upper 70s. Forecast - The Atlantic ridge will remain across the Florida Peninsula through the remainder of the week. As a result, as has been over the past few days, winds will remain largely easterly peaking in the evening and night, while lulling during the day. Moderate moisture and ridging will keep rain chances near to slightly below normal. Seasonably warm and humid conditions will continue with highs near or slightly above 90, lows in the lower to mid 80s, and dew points in the mid to upper 70s. Winds will trend modestly upwards this weekend as the Atlantic ridge lifts northward into North Florida and the far southeastern United States. No other significant change is expected to other forecast elements. Guidance has remained consistent with the passage of a surface through lower level wave late this weekend and early next week. The associated increase in lower level moisture and confluent flow should result in a few periods of increased shower and thunderstorm activity. At this time, mid to high chance pops are justified. Likely and categorical PoPs appear unlikely. The wave will introduce some wind variability due to both increased influences of convective outflows and mesoscale kinks in the pressure field. In general, winds will be gentle to moderate out of the east to southeast. && .MARINE... Issued at 400 AM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024 An Atlantic ridge will remain across the Florida Peninsula through the remainder of the week. This will result in mostly easterly breezes peaking in the evening and night hours and lulling during the day. The ridge is expected to lift northward into the far southeastern United States this weekend resulting in modestly freshening breezes. All guidance has been consistent in a wave riding west northwestward through the area in the late Sunday and early Monday time frame. This will likely introduce higher shower and thunderstorm chances, as well as, wind perturbations. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 400 AM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...11 Aviation/Nowcasts....Jacobson Data Acquisition.....Jacobson Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest