Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
619 FXUS62 KKEY 040230 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1030 PM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 954 PM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024 Currently - Deep layered ridging is aligned over the southeastern United States. Winds are trending upwards across the region due to the combination of the surface ridge along the southeast Atlantic and Gulf Coasts and Hurricane Beryl tracking west northwestward further into the Northwestern Caribbean Sea. This evenings sounding indicated precipitable water has diminished some over the past 24 hours and is now around 1.75 inches. In addition, there is some very low level inhibition and drier air below 850 mb. As a result, convective activity has been limited. Most of the activity over the past few hours has been on lee side boundaries coming off of Andros. The island chain has, thus far, been dry. The strengthening easterlies has maintain a warm and rather humid environment. Temperatures are in the mid 80s with dew points in the upper 70s. Short Term Update - Winds are expected to strengthen a bit further as Beryl moves closer to directly south of the Florida Keys and ridging remains entrenched across the southeast. Guidance suggests a lower level ribbon wrapping around the far northern periphery of Beryl will move into the Keys overnight. While CAPE will remain ample, weak lower level inhibition will persist. In addition, Beryl`s circulation is expected to remain far enough off to the south to keep the local environment neutral. As a result, will maintain slight chance pops for the overnight, which is in-line with guidance. The healthy flow will ensure a muggy morning with overnight lows likely holding in the mid 80s with dew points in the upper 70s. No changes are required for the zone product. && .MARINE... Issued at 954 PM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024 The combination of a ridge across northern Florida and Hurricane Beryl tracking further into the Northwestern Caribbean Sea will result in winds freshening a bit further overnight. Cautions are in effect for most Keys marine zones. Only minor adjustments made to refresh first period wind wording in the evening marine update. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 954 PM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024 VFR conditions are expected to prevail at the island terminals overnight. Surface winds will be gentle to moderate out of the east. && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...11 Aviation/Nowcasts....11 Data Acquisition.....JAM Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest