Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
459 FXUS62 KKEY 011449 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1049 AM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1046 AM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024 It has been a very wet morning across the Florida Keys with numerous showers and a couple isolated thunderstorms, mainly over the marine area. MRMS-(Multi-Radar/Multi Sensor) rainfall estimates across the Lower to Middle Keys were 1 to 2 inches with some localized spots of 2.5+ inches. The Upper Keys estimated amounts ranged from 0.5-1 inch. Due to all the rain, GOES 16 Visible satellite imagery shows rather expansive cloud cover across much of the Keys. Due to this, temperatures along the Island Chain are in the mid to upper 70s with dew points in the lower to mid 70s. At the surface, the western periphery of the subtropical high is beginning to have some influence across the Keys again. This is resulting in marine platforms observing east to southeast winds near 10 knots outside of any convective influences. .SHORT TERM FORECAST... CIMSS Vorticity shows a stretched out lobe from the Keys southwest to the Yucatan Channel. This is in conjunction with a weak upper level trough continuing to migrate to the southwest slowly. As a result, numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue at least until the early to mid afternoon hours before we start to see some drying. Also, hi-res model guidance is showing the current activity lingering at least to the aforementioned time. Any showers and storms will also be capable of producing gusty winds. Therefore, no changes expected to the ongoing forecast. && .MARINE... Issued at 1046 AM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024 There are currently no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect across the Florida Keys coastal waters. From synopsis, high pressure over the western North Atlantic will maintain gentle to moderate easterly breezes across the Florida Keys. Hurricane Beryl will remain south of the Florida Keys as it marches west northwest through the Caribbean Sea Tuesday through Thursday. Breezes will freshen Wednesday and Wednesday night as Beryl makes its closest approach. Please review the Tropical Cyclone Advisories for additional information on the track and future evolution of Beryl. && .AVIATION... (15Z TAFS) Issued at 1046 AM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024 A wetter than normal weather pattern remains in place across the area. As a result, rounds of heavy rain, accompanied by locally gusty winds and sub VFR conditions will remain a possibility through the afternoon. With that said, the environment is getting pretty close to tapped out for the short term. Outside of convection, surface winds will be light out of the southeast. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 88 82 91 83 / 60 40 20 20 Marathon 88 83 91 83 / 60 40 20 20 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...MJV Aviation/Nowcasts....11 Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest