768
FXUS62 KKEY 020849
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
449 AM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 304 AM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024
Water vapor imagery highlights a broad mean-layer ridge over the
Mississippi River Valley. A long wave trough has amplified off the
Eastern Seaboard, while the ITCZ over the eastern Pacific finally
has started to percolate. Category 5 Hurricane Beryl stands out
in the Caribbean, the earliest Category 5 on record for the
Atlantic Basin.

Southeast winds across the Keys average 9 to 13 knots at the
Reef. Temperatures range from 80 to 85 and dewpoints are in the
mid 70s. The KBYX radar detects isolated showers and thunderstorms
over the deep Gulf and also across the coastal waters adjacent to
the Middle and Upper Keys.

.FORECAST...
The mean-layer ridge centered over the Mississippi River Valley
will expand to the east today through Thursday night, while the
long wave trough near the Eastern Seaboard will lose latitude to
the east of Bermuda. Beryl initially steered to the west-
northwest by the subtropical ridge over the western North Atlantic
will then feel the ridge over the northern Gulf and press west
into the Yucatan. As Beryl nears the Yucatan, a small TUTT cell
will move in tandem to the west of Beryl. There is high confidence
in the track forecast for Beryl through the Caribbean, but the
intensity of Beryl as it nears the Yucatan is of low confidence.

The forecast for the next week is remarkably non-descript for the
Keys, even with a major hurricane sliding west-northwest through
the Caribbean. Steering flow will remain from the east-southeast
for much of the next 7 days. The deep tropical moisture we have
been used to will be replaced by occasional episodes of dry air
between 925-700 mb, possibly sourced from scavenged plumes of
SAL. We highlight near normal (20-30%) rain/thunder chances,
above normal highs and lows, and gentle to moderate breezes. We
continue to advertise a brief easterly wind surge (15 to 20 kts)
Wednesday night as Beryl makes its closest approach to the Keys on
its way to the Yucatan. A stonger or larger system in this time
frame and a Small Craft Advisory may be required.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 304 AM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024
There are no watches, warnings, or advisories currently in effect
for the coastal waters of the Florida Keys. From synopsis, high
pressure over the western North Atlantic will maintain gentle to
moderate easterly breezes across the Florida Keys. Hurricane Beryl
will remain south of the Florida Keys as it marches west
northwest through the Caribbean Sea today through Thursday.
Breezes will freshen Wednesday and Wednesday night as Beryl makes
its closest approach. Please review the Tropical Cyclone
Advisories for additional information on the track and future
evolution of Beryl.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 304 AM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period
even though there will continue to be some residual cloud cover in
the area from diminishing showers. Weather conditions onsite
should remain dry through most, if not all, of the day. Near-
surface southeasterly winds of up to 10 kts become east to
southeasterly later tonight.

&&

.CLIMATE...
On this date in 1878, a Tropical Storm passed about 100 miles north
of Key West, where a minimum pressure of 29.77" was recorded along
with a peak sustained wind of 36 mph.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West  90  83  91  83 /  20  20  30  30
Marathon  89  83  91  83 /  30  20  30  30

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...CLR
Aviation/Nowcasts....DP
Data Acquisition.....DP

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