165
FXUS62 KKEY 021522
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
1122 AM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1115 AM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024
The 12z morning sounding at KEY highlighted a loaded profile, with
no inhibition, decent low- and mid-level lapse rates, no capping
inversion, and plenty of mixed-layer instability. Despite all of
these factors, mean southeast to south steering flow is currently
winning the convective battle. Recent GOES-16 visible satellite
imagery reveals a distinct shadow around the island of Cuba
progressing into the Straits of Florida, where only struggling
cumuli can be seen.

The main question of the day is if low-level winds can gradually
back to the east to southeast over the next several hours, as
powerful Hurricane Beryl continues to make its westward progression
in the southern Caribbean. This would lead to a window of
confluence that might overcome the Cuban Shadow-driven subsidence.
The chances of this occurring are high enough to warrant low-end
chance level measurable rainfall for the island communities, with
at least a slight chance of an overachieving thunderstorm. No
changes proposed for this late morning update.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1115 AM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024
There are no watches, warnings, or advisories currently in effect
for the coastal waters of the Florida Keys. From synopsis, high
pressure over the western North Atlantic will maintain gentle to
moderate easterly breezes across the Florida Keys. Hurricane Beryl
will remain south of the Florida Keys as it continues to march
west northwest through the Caribbean Sea this afternoon through
Thursday. Breezes will freshen Wednesday and Wednesday night as
Beryl makes its closest approach. Please review the Tropical
Cyclone Advisories for additional information on the track and
future evolution of Beryl.

&&

.AVIATION...
(15Z TAFS)
Issued at 1115 AM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period for
both terminals. Near-surface southeasterly winds of up to 10 kts
become east to southeasterly this evening and overnight.

&&

.CLIMATE...
On this date in 1878, a tropical storm passed about 100 miles
north of Key West, where a minimum pressure of 29.77" was recorded
along with a peak sustained wind of 36 mph.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West  90  83  91  83 /  20  20  30  30
Marathon  89  83  91  83 /  30  20  30  30

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...BT
Aviation/Nowcasts....MJV
Data Acquisition.....MJV

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