878
FXUS63 KJKL 062020
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
420 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Seasonably hot and rain-free weather follows for tomorrow before
  a humid and unsettled weather pattern develops for the new work
  week.

- We will also be watching the track of Beryl`s remains later in
  the week for possible impacts here in eastern Kentucky.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 420 PM EDT SAT JUL 6 2024

Aloft seeing minor height rises across the eastern CONUS through
the short term while a broad trough over the Great Plains begins
to fill and lift north-northeastward towards the Upper Midwest. At
the surface high pressure shifts slowly from the Midwest into New
England by the of the period. That makes temperatures and the
potential of fog the main forecast challenges for the short term.

Sensible weather features a moderation or warming in temperatures
through the period. The seasonably pleasant (mid 80s) and
relatively comfortable weather experienced today will feel a bit
warmer tomorrow as temperatures climb to near 90. However, winds
remain out of the north-northeast through the period. Consequently
do not expect a surge in moisture across the area and a return to
super muggy conditions, though surface dew points will tend to
creep up as the high passes to our east and return flow begins to
kick in by the end of the short term. Overnight lows will be
pleasantly cool through the period, with our cooler valleys
dropping to around 60 tonight and lower 60s tomorrow night. Cross
over temps are generally in the low to mid 60s. Thus we can expect
the formation of some valley fog through the overnight, possibly
not quite as dense and widespread as this morning as a result of
some of our boundary layer moisture being mixed out during the day
today.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 409 AM EDT SAT JUL 6 2024

Surface high pressure will continue to remain in place overhead to
start the period but with the approach of an upper-level trough,
flow turns southwesterly allowing for influx of moisture. As a
result, temperatures on Monday are forecast to the warmest of the
period as highs are forecast to be in the low to mid-90s. This
coupled with warm, moist southwesterly flow, heat indices will be
approaching 100 degrees to over 100 in isolated locations.

Models continue to remain in agreement with a positively tilted
trough approaching the area. At the surface, a surface low will be
tracking through the Upper Great Lakes. Along and ahead of the
front, increasing showers and thunderstorms are likely. As the low
tracks through the Great Lakes, the front will dive southeast
through the CWA. Forecast soundings, sampled ahead of the front show
a marginally severe atmosphere. Can`t rule out a severe storm or two
but overall, pre-FROPA environment appears to be a poor supportive
environment for severe storms. As the surface low ejects northeast,
the surface boundary will extend southwest toward the Ozark Plateau.
This will set the stage for the remnants of Hurricane Beryl to ride
along the boundary and into the forecast area for the end of the
forecast period.

Overall, the period will with a break from the showers and storms
but moving into next week, periods of showers and thunderstorms will
bring much needed rain to the area. However, temperatures will
continue to hang around climatological ranges as daytime highs in
the mid-80s to low-90s and overnight lows ranging from the upper-50s
to upper-60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 135 PM EDT SAT JUL 6 2024

VFR flight conditions are being forecast through the period.
Overnight valley fog development is not expected to impact any
terminals overnight. Otherwise, regional satellite loops is
showing some considerable mid and high clouds upstream. These
cloud will pass across the area between now and this evening.
Winds will average around 5 kts or less through the period,
generally from the west. KSYM may tend to flow out of the west-
southwest due to local terrain effects.

&&Aloft seeing minor height rises across the eastern CONUS through the
short term while a broad trough over the Great Plains begins to fill
and lift north-northeastward towards the Upper Midwest. At the
surface high pressure shifts slowly from the Midwest into New
England by the of the period. That makes temperatures and the
potential of fog the main forecast challenges for the short term.

Sensible weather features a moderation or warming in temperatures
through the period. The seasonably pleasant (mid 80s) and
relatively comfortable weather experienced today will feel a bit
warmer tomorrow as temperatures climb to near 90. However, winds
remain out of the north-northeast through the period. Consequently
do not expect a surge in moisture across the area and a return to
super muggy conditions, though surface dew points will tend to
creep up as the high passes to our east and return flow begins to
kick in by the end of the short term. Overnight lows will be
pleasantly cool through the period, with our cooler valleys
dropping to around 60 tonight and lower 60s tomorrow night. Cross
over temps are generally in the low to mid 60s. Thus we can expect
the formation of some valley fog through the overnight, possibly
not quite as dense and widespread as this morning as a result of
some of our boundary layer moisture being mixed out during the day
today.

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RAY
LONG TERM...VORST
AVIATION...RAY