317
FXUS63 KJKL 052212
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
612 PM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few thunderstorms through early this evening could produce
  locally heavy rainfall and strong wind gusts.

- Somewhat cooler and less humid weather arrives behind a cold
  front on Saturday.

- Seasonably hot and rain-free weather follows for Sunday before a
  humid and unsettled weather pattern develops for the new work
  week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 440 PM EDT FRI JUL 5 2024

Late this afternoon, narrows ridging extended from portions of
the northern Gulf of Mexico and southeast across portions of the
southeastern Conus to southeast of the mid Atlantic coast with a
stronger ridge another near the west coast of the Conus and a
general area of broad troughing south from central Canada into the
western Great Lakes to south central Conus and MS Valley. A
shortwave trough ahead of the 500 mb trough axis was working
across portions of the OH Valley at this time with associated
convection that crossed the region from late in the morning into
the afternoon having largely departed to WV and VA. At the
surface, an area of low pressure was working across the Great
Lakes region with a trailing cold front working across western and
central KY to the Arklatex and further west toward the Southern
Plains. Behind this system a sfc high extended from the Plains
toward the mid MS Valley.

This evening and tonight, the shortwave trough working across the
region will depart to the east and northeast this evening. The 500
mb trough axis will remain across Central portions of the Conus
and west of the Commonwealth through Saturday night. Height rises
are expected to rise a bit on Saturday across the southeastern
Conus and into eastern KY, while little change in mid level
heights is expected late tonight as well as on Saturday night. At
the surface, the cold front will continue east this evening across
eastern KY and work into WV and VA overnight. Behind this system,
sfc high pressure will build east into the OH Valley and settle
over portions of the OH Valley and the Appalachians to end the
period.

Ahead of the front, isolated to scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms will remain possible through this evening with
chances diminishing even near the WV and VA border not longer
after midnight. Fog should form at least in the valleys late
tonight and could become rather widespread areawide following
rainfall earlier today. A cooler and drier airmass will move into
the area behind the front as the high works east into the area for
Saturday and remain in place through Saturday night.

Less humid weather for Saturday and Saturday night will be most
notable with lows falling below 70 for most areas tonight and
areawide on Saturday night.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 610 PM EDT FRI JUL 5 2024

Weak surface high pressure will initially be found over the Mid-
Ohio Ohio Valley on Sunday morning while a frontal boundary will
be parked along the southeastern slopes of the Appalachians,
corralling the soupy humidity levels to our south and east. The
placid weather over the Ohio Valley won`t persist though as the
combination of two weather makers, a upper level trough dipping
into the Central CONUS and and Hurricane Beryl approaching the
Lower Rio Grande Valley, likely set the stage for periods of wet
weather across the eastern Kentucky Coalfields.

High pressure will gradually depart to the northeast on Sunday,
allowing a southerly return flow to develop in advance of the
approaching upper level trough. This will pull the boundary to our
south back north and bring back sultry humidity levels on Monday.
Meanwhile, the advancing trough will push a cold front into the
Ohio Valley. This will lead to renewed diurnally modulated shower
and thunderstorm activity beginning Monday and lasting into Tuesday.
Thereafter, models are increasingly latching onto the idea of
Beryl`s remnants riding northeastward along the boundary during
the middle and latter portions of the week, which would feed
tropical moisture into our region and keep the daily threat of
showers and thunderstorms over our area.

Temperature-wise, look for highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s on
Sunday, warming slightly into the upper 80s to lower 90s on
Monday. The most notable sensible change will be the rise in
humidity levels, which will boost Monday afternoon`s heat indices
to near 100F at some locations. The threat for showers and
thunderstorms will also return on Monday. Greater cloud cover and
precipitation will keep temperatures more subdued from Tuesday
through at least Thursday, with highs primarily in the middle 80s.
Nighttime lows are forecast to range from the mid 60s to lower
70s through the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 235 PM EDT FRI JUL 5 2024

Convection had cleared all but the KSJS vicinity at issuance
time. A lull in activity may occur during the afternoon, but
another round or two of isolated to scattered convection will
remain possible until a cold front crosses the region this evening
into the overnight and a upper disturbance passes. Reductions to
MVFR and IFR if not briefly near airport mins could occur in the
strongest convection. Winds will average 10 KT or less outside of
any convection, from the southwest to west through 06Z and then
becoming west to northwest for the balance of the period behind
the cold front. Fog will also become a concern in the 06Z to 13Z
timeframe when at least IFR and MVFR reductions will be possible.
Some reductions due these levels due to low clouds could occur in
that timeframe as well.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...GEERTSON
AVIATION...JP