543
FXUS63 KJKL 070915
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
515 AM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Seasonably hot and rain-free weather follows for today and
  Monday morning before a humid and unsettled weather pattern
  develops during the new work week.

- The remnants of Beryl will track to our northwest Tuesday into
  Wednesday, bringing an uptick in shower and thunderstorm
  activity.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 515 AM EDT SUN JUL 7 2024

08Z sfc analysis shows high pressure through the Ohio Valley and
this is keeping the skies mostly clear over eastern Kentucky,
aside from some lingering clouds in the far southeast. The lack of
clouds for most of the area, along with light winds beneath the
high, brought decent radiational cooling conditions in an airmass
of relatively low dewpoints - at least compared to recent days.
As a result, temperatures currently vary from the lower 60s in
many sheltered valley spots to around 70 degrees on the hills.
Meanwhile, dewpoints are generally in the low to mid 60s.
Additionally, these conditions are also responsible for some fog
in the river valleys early this morning.

The models, and their individual ensemble suites, remain in decent
agreement aloft through the short term portion of the forecast.
They all depict ridging to the southeast dominating the weather
for the area through Monday morning as 5h heights will be rising
through then for eastern Kentucky. However by Monday afternoon,
attention then turns toward the remnant circulation and moisture
of former major hurricane Beryl as it rides into the lower
Mississippi Valley - once picked up by the westerlies. This will
help to start lowering downstream heights and also slip more
energy into the persistent southwest mid-level flow. Yet, model
consensus is to hold off any true impacts until Tuesday, at the
earliest, for our area. Given the small model spread have again
favored the NBM as the starting point for the forecast grids -
along with some terrain based temperature enhancements early this
morning and again tonight.

Sensible weather features a warmer day, but humidity will be
slower to climb sparing most of the area any heat index values
above 95 degrees. This will likely not be the case for Monday when
higher temperatures - in the low 90s for most - will combine with
higher humidity to bring some heat index values to near 100
degrees across the area during the afternoon. It will also be in
the afternoon that we will see a chance for showers and
thunderstorms for the southeast third, or so, of the JKL CWA as
the sfc high works away to the northeast. Tonight look for a
smaller ridge to valley temperature split owing to slight higher
dewpoints and a bit more cloud cover around. Again some river
valley fog will be in the cards late tonight into early Monday
morning.

Again, the main changes to the NBM starting point consisted of
adjusting the temperatures in order to better reflect more terrain
details tonight. PoPs were not adjusted much spatially or in
magnitude from the NBM as the CAMs where similar through Monday
afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 515 AM EDT SUN JUL 7 2024

A seasonably strong ridge will start out aligned across the West,
with a positively tilted trough positioned from Hudson Bay through
the western Great Lakes/Upper Midwest and southern Plains.
Meanwhile, Beryl will be closing in on the Arklatex region, while
another ridge center remains over the southeastern CONUS. The
models are in decent agreement through next week, with the
remnants of Beryl eventually combining with the positively tilted
trough to our west through mid-week. This trough will then
gradually dampen by the end of the work week, with ridging and
associated increasing 500 mb heights taking hold over the
Tennessee and Ohio Valley into next weekend.

Details associated with Beryl and its more specific impacts across
eastern Kentucky still remain uncertain at this time. In general,
the track remains to our northwest Tuesday into Wednesday. While
the typical influx of anomalously high PWATs will occur, storm
motions will be progressive. The low level flow will also be more
southeasterly while the system is stronger. As such, the current
model guidance does not show more concentrated higher QPF across
eastern Kentucky. Still, at least isolated heavy rainers will be
a possibility. Effective shears will also peak in the 30-35 kt
range, coupled with more narrow CAPE profiles. This could allow
for a few stronger storms, but will await further model guidance
before including any more specifics at this point.

PoPs will peak in the 40-60% range Tuesday night into Wednesday,
as the core of the tropical remnants pass through, along with an
associated surface cold front, and short wave energy aloft.
Diurnally-driven PoP chances will then become more confined
across southeastern Kentucky through the rest of the week, as the
surface front stalls over the Appalachians. Tuesday looks to be
the overall hottest day through the extended, with highs mainly in
the lower 90s. This, coupled with dew points in the low 70s, will
yield peak heat indices of around 100 degrees. Highs will then
retreat to the mid and upper 80s for mid-week, with stormier
conditions at play. A slight lowering of the dew points will occur
on Thursday behind the cold front. Temperatures will then trend
warmer into next weekend, with highs returning to around 90
degrees by Saturday, along with dew points nearing around 70
once again.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
ISSUED AT 215 AM EDT SUN JUL 7 2024

VFR flight conditions are forecast through the period. early
morning valley fog development should not impact any of the
terminals too much through dawn. However, there is just enough
uncertainty to go ahead and upgrade to a tempo for MFR visibility
at KLOZ and KSME between 08 and 12Z. Winds will average around 5
kts or less through the period, generally from the west.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...CMC/GREIF