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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY
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289 FXUS63 KJKL 022056 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 456 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warm and humid weather continues for Wednesday to Friday and afternoon heat indices may reach near 100 in some locations Wednesday through Friday. - Dry weather lasts into early Wednesday afternoon, then the potential for showers and thunderstorms returns and lingers into the weekend. - The highest probability of rain is on Thursday and Friday and a few thunderstorms could produce strong to damaging wind gusts. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 450 PM EDT TUE JUL 2 2024 Late this afternoon, an upper level ridge of high pressure was centered over the lower MS Valley into the Southeast and extended across much of the eastern Conus as well. The axis of this upper ridge is currently west of eastern KY, but return flow in the lower levels as ushered warmer and more moist air back into the region. PW is currently analyzed in the 1.2 the 1.6 inch range with the lower values in the north and east and the higher values near Lake Cumberland. Dewpoints have risen about 10 to 20 degrees compared to 24 hours ago while temperatures are on average about 10 degrees warmer as well. With the increase in moisture rather extensive, but shallow cumulus has developed across the region with some cirrus passing overhead at times as well. Meanwhile an upper level low was centered near the Manitoba and Ontario border with an associated upper level trough south across the Northern Plains and into parts of the southwest Conus. Tonight and Wednesday, the axis of the upper level ridge will shift east across the OH valley region including eastern KY this evening and then east of the area overnight. Upper level ridging will remain anchored over the southeastern Conus to the eastern seaboard. At the same time, the upper level low is expected to move toward Hudson and James Bay and begin to merge with a deeper upper low and trough over Southern Canada. A shortwave trough should move across the upper MS Valley to western Great Lakes tonight and then across the eastern Great Lakes and into Quebec. Another shortwave trough moving around ridging in the eastern Pacific should emerge from the Rockies and into the Plains through Wednesday afternoon and evening. This shortwave trough should advance east and reach the mid MS to Lower OH Valley through the end of the period. Meanwhile, at the surface, a frontal zone preceding the shortwave trough should reach the Great Lakes tonight reaching western Quebec to the eastern Great Lakes to the mid MS Valley to the Southern Plains becoming stationary or nearly stationary on the southern end. As the upper trough approaches the boundary should sag to near the OH Valley to end the period. Dry weather should persist through tonight to midday on Wednesday as the dominance of ridging begins to dwindle. Further warming along with an increase in moisture should continue in southwest flow between departing sfc high pressure and a front beginning to approach. PW is forecast to climb to to the 1.4 inch southeast to 1.8 inch range west and northwest by Wednesday evening and then to about 1.8 to 2.2 inch range from southeast to northwest to end the period. Afternoon dewpoints outside of the highest elevations near the VA border should be in the upper 60s to low 70s. This will allow heat indices to peak in the mid 90s to near 100 degree range. The increase in moisture, daytime heating as well as weak height falls could lead to some convection developing in or moving into the northwest and perhaps portions of the west by late afternoon and evening. If convection does not move into that regions some CAM runs have an outflow moving in that could be a focus for some convection. Limited instability and shear should limit storm strength, some storms could produce brief heavy downpours. Continued increasing moisture, the approach of a cold front and the approach of a shortwave trough and perhaps a weaker lead one should lead to coverage of convection increasing into Wednesday night. Some locally heavy rain is not out of the question in the more northern areas if convection were to train, but the probability is rather low. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 445 PM EDT TUE JUL 2 2024 The long term discussion will be issued shortly. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon) ISSUED AT 208 PM EDT TUE JUL 2 2024 As moisture has increased cumulus has developed in the 4 to 6kft range, with VFR persisting. This should diminish during the evening and give way to a bit of valley fog between about 06Z and 13Z. The valley fog should again not affect TAF sites. Winds should generally be less than 10KT through 12Z from the southeast to south, before becoming increasingly southwest at around 10KT for more western and northwest locations such as KSME, KLOZ, and KSYM to end the period. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...JP LONG TERM...GEERTSON AVIATION...JP