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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
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290 FXUS62 KJAX 061747 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 147 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .NEAR TERM... Issued at 145 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf Radar starting to show a few showers developing over areas well inland...expecting this to increase in coverage and intensity through the afternoon, with greatest coverage of showers/storms expected to be across the central portion of the nrn FL peninsula into s-ctrl GA. Coverage expected to gradually diminish after 00z. Current low temperature forecast Tonight looks fine with muggy mid-upper 70s expected. && .SHORT TERM... (Sunday through Monday night) Issued at 145 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024 Plentiful moisture will remain available through the rest of the weekend and into next week as a frontal boundary remains stalled over northern GA, as is typical for this time of year. An upper low drifting towards the southeast US coast through this period will continue to keep stacked ridging broad, and therefore weak mean flow/steering. Therefore, the sea breeze will remain the most dominant feature for this period, with scattered to numerous convection as both breeze boundaries move inland. Some of the slightly drier air near the coast will gradually mix out Sunday and into Monday, which will expand PWATs of 2 inches or higher area wide, and therefore higher chances near the coast compared to Saturday. Torrential rainfall will certainly be the the main hazard, though some wet downbursts up to 40-50mph will also be possible. Temperatures come down a bit Sunday and into Monday as well, closer to normal mostly in the low 90s. This looks to keep us just below any heat advisory criteria despite dew points remaining in the mid to upper 70s, though will let the next forecast package evaluate again. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through next Saturday) Issued at 145 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024 The aforementioned upper low will continue to drift west to southwestward through most of this period, likely crossing the southern FL peninsula around Wednesday and Thursday and a remnant impulse. The weakening of this feature aloft should allow a surface ridge with the Bermuda High to strengthen just a bit and build further across the central and southern FL peninsula for at least the Tuesday through Thursday time frame, allowing a bit more of a southwesterly flow to the area. Combined aforementioned with lingering energy aloft, chances for showers and t`storms look to remain high for the majority of this period. Temperatures trend overall close to normal for this period, though introducing some southwesterly flow could creep temps above average, especially inland. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1220 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024 Latest satellite imagery shows plenty of cumulus clouds around TAF sites based at SCT-BKN030-040. Widely scattered SHRA/TSRA will develop along west coast and east coast sea breezes later this afternoon, likely with greatest coverage over central part of ne FL peninsula, including KGNV area, by late afternoon as sea breezes converge...maintaining TEMPO group for TSRA at KGNV 20z-00z, VCTS at other inland TAF sites. Light S to SW winds this afternoon interior areas, with SE winds 6-10kts after passage of east coast sea breeze for eastern TAF sites. Light winds are expected Tonight and Sunday morning with VFR conditions. && .MARINE... Issued at 145 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024 High pressure will remain east of the waters through the forecast period, maintaining fairly light S to SE winds and 2-3 ft seas, with daily sea breezes each afternoon near the coast. Rip Currents: Low-end Moderate Risk of rip currents through Sunday. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 304 AM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024 Above average temperatures continue today, then high temperatures begin to cool as storminess increases over the area starting Sunday. Today, record high minimum temperatures could be challenged. July 6: KJAX: 79/1902 KGNV: 78/1900 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 75 92 75 91 / 70 70 60 70 SSI 80 90 79 91 / 10 50 40 70 JAX 76 94 76 93 / 20 60 50 70 SGJ 77 92 78 93 / 10 50 30 70 GNV 75 94 75 91 / 60 70 60 70 OCF 76 95 76 93 / 50 70 60 70 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for FLZ021-023-030-031- 035-120-136-220-236-322-422-522. GA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for GAZ132>136-149-151- 152-162-163-250-264-350-364. AM...None. && $$