303
FXUS62 KJAX 070613
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
213 AM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 820 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Lowered winds during the overnight hours, overall forecast
remains unchanged. Lingering showers and thunderstorms will
continue into the early evening hours over the far western
counties of NE FL and along the western Altamaha River Basin in SE
GA. Overnight lows will be in the mid-upper 70s. Some patchy fog
may develop over northern SE GA over locations as winds begin to
wane during the overnight hours.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 145 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Radar starting to show a few showers developing over areas well
inland...expecting this to increase in coverage and intensity
through the afternoon, with greatest coverage of showers/storms
expected to be across the central portion of the nrn FL peninsula
into s-ctrl GA. Coverage expected to gradually diminish after 00z.
Current low temperature forecast Tonight looks fine with muggy
mid-upper 70s expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday night)
Issued at 145 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024

Plentiful moisture will remain available through the rest of the
weekend and into next week as a frontal boundary remains stalled
over northern GA, as is typical for this time of year. An upper
low drifting towards the southeast US coast through this period
will continue to keep stacked ridging broad, and therefore weak
mean flow/steering. Therefore, the sea breeze will remain the most
dominant feature for this period, with scattered to numerous
convection as both breeze boundaries move inland. Some of the
slightly drier air near the coast will gradually mix out Sunday
and into Monday, which will expand PWATs of 2 inches or higher
area wide, and therefore higher chances near the coast compared to
Saturday. Torrential rainfall will certainly be the the main
hazard, though some wet downbursts up to 40-50mph will also be
possible.

Temperatures come down a bit Sunday and into Monday as well,
closer to normal mostly in the low 90s. This looks to keep us just
below any heat advisory criteria despite dew points remaining in
the mid to upper 70s, though will let the next forecast package
evaluate again.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 145 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024

The aforementioned upper low will continue to drift west to
southwestward through most of this period, likely crossing the
southern FL peninsula around Wednesday and Thursday and a remnant
impulse. The weakening of this feature aloft should allow a
surface ridge with the Bermuda High to strengthen just a bit and
build further across the central and southern FL peninsula for at
least the Tuesday through Thursday time frame, allowing a bit more
of a southwesterly flow to the area. Combined aforementioned with
lingering energy aloft, chances for showers and t`storms look to
remain high for the majority of this period. Temperatures trend
overall close to normal for this period, though introducing some
southwesterly flow could creep temps above average, especially
inland.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 203 AM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Batch of fading showers was drifting offshore of SSI which could
bring TEMPO MVFR conditions over the next 1-2 hrs. Also included
TEMPO MVFR ceilings for GNV and TEMPO MVFR BR early this morning for
VQQ given persistence. VFR conditions should prevail after 08z
through 15z, less tempo MVFR ceilings after sunrise as surface
moisture rises into a low level cloud deck (2.5-3 kft).

Showers and storms will begin to develop midday near and inland of
the inland progressing Gulf & East coast sea breezes. Breezy
post-sea breeze winds 12-14 kts are expected at SGJ and SSI with
VCSH into the evening as the best TS potential will focus at
inland terminals. Given elevated confidence (> 60%) of TS at GNV,
indicated prevailing TS by 20z with VCTS at JAX, VQQ and CRG.

Weak SW steering flow will try to shift inland storms back toward
the Atlantic coast into the evening. Trended the terminals to
VCSH after 02-03z. Low restrictions due to convection will be
possible today and could last a while given slow storm motion and
heavy rainfall potential with such a saturated airmass.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 145 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024

High pressure will remain east of the waters through the forecast
period, maintaining fairly light S to SE winds and 2-3 ft seas, with
daily sea breezes each afternoon near the coast.

Rip Currents: Low-end Moderate Risk of rip currents through
Sunday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 304 AM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024

Above average temperatures continue today, then high temperatures
begin to cool as storminess increases over the area starting
Sunday. Today, record high minimum temperatures could be
challenged.

July 6:
KJAX: 79/1902
KGNV: 78/1900

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  92  75  91  75 /  70  60  70  20
SSI  90  79  91  78 /  50  40  70  40
JAX  94  76  93  76 /  60  50  70  40
SGJ  92  78  93  77 /  50  30  70  40
GNV  94  75  91  74 /  70  60  70  20
OCF  95  76  93  75 /  70  60  70  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$