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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
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278 FXUS62 KJAX 140719 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 319 AM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .NEAR TERM...(Today through Tonight)... Deepening moisture amid the stagnant, light flow pattern in place should trend t`storm coverage up across NE FL this afternoon. Lingering presence of dry air across SE GA should keep coverage isolated to widely scattered at best. Given the near absence in steering flow, the sea breezes will push in from both coasts, somewhat slowly given the warmth of the waters (SSTs 83-88F). Convection will likely become outflow-dominant as it pushes slowly inland this afternoon. Anticipate the diurnal convection to begin to fade by sunset but a few showers may bubble up along outflow interactions through midnight tonight. Leftover convective debris clouds will gradually dissipate through the night, leaving mostly clear skies. Deep moisture and slow-moving storms will yield a risk for localized flooding, particularly across NE FL and south of I-10 where the deepest moisture will exist. However, the rain-free stretch of weather should preclude the risk of significant flooding. A secondary concern will be strong downbursts and resulting outflow winds around 30-50 mph with the deeper convective pulses this afternoon. Hot and humid conditions are expected this afternoon, particularly at the coast where dew points will rise into the upper 70s and low 80s with the sea breeze, pushing heat index to 107-110F. A Heat Advisory for all of the coastal counties will be in effect this afternoon. Inland zones will be hot as well but heat index values are more likely to stay below 108F, so held of on issuing any additional heat headlines. Take precautions when working outdoors today and take frequent breaks to hydrate/cool off. For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf && .SHORT TERM...(Monday through Tuesday night) Light south/southwesterly flow continues Monday, which not only keeps a strong sea breeze influence, but also continues to fill in more tropical moisture area wide with PWATs of 2+ inches. The mean layer flow looks just at touch stronger tomorrow, which keeps the sea breeze slightly closer to the coast compared to Sunday. Though should still be enough inland progress for convection to spread away from the coast, especially with various boundaries and collisions. Dew points over 70 will once again be the norm, even over southeast GA, after some "drier" values in the upper 60s for some this weekend. The aforementioned conditions will once again keep most of the area flirting with Heat Advisory Criteria, as highs top out in the mid to upper 90s. Continuing to sound like a broken record, but a very similar type of setup is expected into Tuesday as well, with mid to upper 90s and near or slightly below heat advisory criteria. && .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday) Surface ridging slowly starts to tighten up just a bit from mid to late week as a frontal boundary approaches the area. Wednesday looks to be a pretty persistent summertime-like day before some energy from the associated upper trough actually looks to dig decently far southward into the southeast US by the Thursday to Saturday time frame. This could help to enhance rain chances for this period, especially from near I-10 northward into southeast GA as the aforementioned boundary stalls just north of the region. Though sea breeze driven convection is likely to remain quite present further south into northeast FL. Temperatures for this period start slightly above average Wednesday, but will overall trend slightly downward towards normal by late week. && .AVIATION...(06Z TAFS) Issued at 138 AM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Steady VFR conditions through the period outside of convective influences. Scattered t`storms will develop along the sea breeze this afternoon. Given the pulse nature of storms, confidence is not high enough to support TEMPO mentions at this time. Concerns with convection will be downburst/outflow winds and occasional visibility restriction due to downpours. Convection should push inland through the afternoon and evening, eventually fading around after sunset. Light winds will prevail through the period, favoring southerly direction until the Atlantic sea breeze pushes inland during the afternoon. && .MARINE... Ridge axis extended from the Bermuda high pressure will set up south of the waters resulting in an offshore flow through Wednesday. Daily surges of south-southeasterly winds will develop across the nearshore waters with the development of the afternoon sea breeze each day. Seas will build slightly today as a southeasterly swell arrives and remain elevated, around 3 to 4 feet through at least midweek. Most thunderstorm activity this afternoon will be inland. However, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will be possible during the afternoon and early evening hours each day during the first half of the upcoming week. Rip Currents: Building surf and the Atlantic sea breeze will lead to a moderate risk of rip currents today and Monday at area beaches. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 97 75 97 75 / 30 20 70 20 SSI 94 79 93 79 / 30 20 50 20 JAX 96 76 96 75 / 50 20 60 20 SGJ 94 77 94 77 / 50 20 50 20 GNV 94 74 93 74 / 60 30 70 20 OCF 93 75 93 75 / 60 40 70 20 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM EDT this evening for FLZ024-033-038-124-125-133-138-225-325-425. GA...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM EDT this evening for GAZ153-154-165-166. AM...None. && $$