974
FXUS62 KJAX 141248
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
848 AM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024

...New UPDATE, MARINE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 834 AM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

The coastal sauna counties as very warm SST`s in the coastal
waters contribute copious moisture to add to the hot temperatures.
Can only say, yesterday felt like a summer day along the Gulf
coast where you can cut the air it`s so think and today is going
to be the same. No changes to the Heat Advisory that was issued
overnight. Stay hydrated on the beaches.

Inland areas aren`t going to feel much better with the only
difference being the minimum relative humidity will keep us JUST
out of the Heat Advisory ranges. Highs inland will be in the upper
90s but Heat Index values will be in the 105-107F range. Again
stay hydrated and take breaks from the heat!

The east coast sea breeze should form about 1-2 p.m. and will move
slowly inland. A few showers and isolated thunderstorms will for
along the sea breeze front and move slowly west. About 2 to 3 p.m.
a few pulse thunderstorms will form over the interior and later in
the afternoon and evening these will be enhanced by Gulf and
Atlantic Sea Breeze Front convergence over the usually places,
Ocala, Gainesville, Like Oak and Lake City. Over Southeast
Georgia this would most likely be Waycross, Nahunta, Folkston and
Jesup.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(Today through Tonight)...

Deepening moisture amid the stagnant, light flow pattern in place
should trend t`storm coverage up across NE FL this afternoon.
Lingering presence of dry air across SE GA should keep coverage
isolated to widely scattered at best. Given the near absence in
steering flow, the sea breezes will push in from both coasts,
somewhat slowly given the warmth of the waters (SSTs 83-88F).
Convection will likely become outflow-dominant as it pushes
slowly inland this afternoon. Anticipate the diurnal convection to
begin to fade by sunset but a few showers may bubble up along
outflow interactions through midnight tonight. Leftover convective
debris clouds will gradually dissipate through the night, leaving
mostly clear skies.

Deep moisture and slow-moving storms will yield a risk for
localized flooding, particularly across NE FL and south of I-10
where the deepest moisture will exist. However, the rain-free
stretch of weather should preclude the risk of significant
flooding. A secondary concern will be strong downbursts and
resulting outflow winds around 30-50 mph with the deeper
convective pulses this afternoon.

Hot and humid conditions are expected this afternoon, particularly
at the coast where dew points will rise into the upper 70s and low
80s with the sea breeze, pushing heat index to 107-110F. A Heat
Advisory for all of the coastal counties will be in effect this
afternoon. Inland zones will be hot as well but heat index values
are more likely to stay below 108F, so held of on issuing any
additional heat headlines. Take precautions when working outdoors
today and take frequent breaks to hydrate/cool off.

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Monday through Tuesday night)

Light south/southwesterly flow continues Monday, which not only
keeps a strong sea breeze influence, but also continues to fill in
more tropical moisture area wide with PWATs of 2+ inches. The mean
layer flow looks just at touch stronger tomorrow, which keeps the
sea breeze slightly closer to the coast compared to Sunday. Though
should still be enough inland progress for convection to spread
away from the coast, especially with various  boundaries and
collisions. Dew points over 70 will once again be the norm, even
over southeast GA, after some "drier" values in the upper 60s for
some this weekend. The aforementioned conditions will once again
keep most of the area flirting with Heat Advisory Criteria, as
highs top out in the mid to upper 90s. Continuing to sound like a
broken record, but a very similar type of setup is expected into
Tuesday as well, with mid to upper 90s and near or slightly below
heat advisory criteria.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)

Surface ridging slowly starts to tighten up just a bit from mid
to late week as a frontal boundary approaches the area. Wednesday
looks to be a pretty persistent summertime-like day before some
energy from the associated upper trough actually looks to dig
decently far southward into the southeast US by the Thursday to
Saturday time frame. This could help to enhance rain chances for
this period, especially from near I-10 northward into southeast GA
as the aforementioned boundary stalls just north of the region.
Though sea breeze driven convection is likely to remain quite
present further south into northeast FL.

Temperatures for this period start slightly above average
Wednesday, but will overall trend slightly downward towards normal
by late week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 721 AM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024

Convection will be a bit suppressed today over SE GA and extreme
north Florida with the main sea breeze front convergence over
interior north Florida from Lake City southward. Thus the main
TEMPOs for convection will be at KVQQ and KGNV. Have TEMPOs in
for the JAX metro fields as the east coast sea breeze moves
inland but any coverage should be quite brief. Have kept
convection west of KSSI and KSGJ using VCTS.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 834 AM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024

The Bermuda-Azores Ridge axis extends across the Florida Peninsula
and into the eastern Gulf with the mean axis over central Florida.
This will result in general offshore flow with afternoon and
evening sea breezes developing through Wednesday. Seas will build
slightly today as a southeasterly swell arrives and remain
elevated, around 3 to 4 feet through at least midweek. Most
thunderstorm activity this afternoon and evening will form in
inland areas. However, scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms will be possible during the afternoon and early
evening hours each day during the first half of the upcoming week.

Rip Currents: Building surf and the Atlantic sea breeze will lead
to a moderate risk of rip currents today and Monday at area
beaches.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  97  75  97  75 /  30  20  70  20
SSI  94  79  93  79 /  30  20  50  20
JAX  96  76  96  75 /  50  20  60  20
SGJ  94  77  94  77 /  50  20  50  20
GNV  94  74  93  74 /  60  30  70  20
OCF  93  75  93  75 /  60  40  70  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM EDT this evening for
     FLZ024-033-038-124-125-133-138-225-325-425.

GA...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM EDT this evening for
     GAZ153-154-165-166.

AM...None.
&&

$$