619
FXUS62 KJAX 150017
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
817 PM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024

..Afternoon heat indices in the 105 to 109 degree range Monday...

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 735 PM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Convection is waning across the region with mostly isolated
showers north of I-10 and west of highway 301, and will diminish
as the evening progresses. The current forecast has this well in
hand. The overnight lows will in the mid to upper 70s, with mins
near 80 on the First Coach Beaches tomorrow morning. The region
will be between high pressure to the east, and a trough just to
the northwest Monday. This pattern will yield a moist and
unstable south southwest flow, with convection in the afternoon
and early evening hours. Temperatures will trend above normal
Monday. Heat indices may be in range of advisory levels again on
Monday afternoon with values between 104 to 109 degrees.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 201 PM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

East coast sea breeze is pinned close to the Atlantic coast and
with a synoptic westerly flow will only make slow progress inland.
Convection is beginning to fire near the Intracoastal waterway
and again will more slowly inland. The Gulf sea breeze is making a
bit more progress inland and should enhance the squeezing over
the Florida Peninsula this afternoon and eventually across inland
SE Georgia this evening. Highest chances of precipitation will be
over the Ocala/Ocala National forest areas northward into
Gainesville. Convection will gradually begin to diminish after
sunset, end last over the central Florida peninsula and Marion
County.

Highs will be in the upper 90s with Heat Index values in the
104-107F range inland and with higher relative humidity along the
coast 107-110F. Thus will maintain the Heat Advisory along the
coast into the evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 201 PM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024

The region will be between high pressure to the east, and a trough
just to the northwest this period. This pattern will yield a moist
and unstable south southwest flow, with convection in the afternoon
and evening hours. Temperatures will trend above normal. Heat
indices may be in range of advisory levels again on Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 201 PM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024

High pressure will be centered to the east through Friday, as a
persistent trough lingers to the northwest. This pattern will yield
a south southwest flow. This flow will yield a moist and unstable
airmass, with diurnal convection expected. Convection will initiate
on the Gulf sea breeze, then spread across the area through the
afternoon hours. Temperatures will trend a little above normal.

The high will build more toward the east northeast on over the
weekend. With this pattern the flow will be more from the south.
This will produce diurnal convection, with temperatures running a
little above normal.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 735 PM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024

Post convective environment has left some very isolated showers
north of I-10 and west of highway 301 this evening with none of
the terminals on the receiving end of precipitation this evening.
VFR conditions are anticipated through most of the nocturnal hours
with the exception being VQQ which is forecast to drop to about
4sm in mist and stratiform clouds. Southeast winds this early evening
will give way to diminishing winds by mid evening through the rest
of the night. Convection will generate around the Suwannee Valley
between 12z and 14z and slowly spread inland during the morning
hours with best convergence near the FL/GA border between 18z and
22z Monday. Main TEMPOs period for convection will be between 19z
and 21z for area terminals. It looks like east coast sea breeze
moves inland zipping with west coast sea breeze near I-95. Looks
like convection will diminish between 22z and 00z Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 201 PM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024

The Bermuda-Azores High axis will be centered across the
central Florida peninsula with a synoptic southwesterly to
westerly flow pattern through mid-week. The flow pattern will be
broken during the late afternoon and evening hours with a
southerly to southeasterly flow as the sea breeze develops.
Nocturnal wind surges around the western periphery of the ridge
could briefly reach Small Craft Exercise Caution (SCEC) criteria
during the overnight hours but again only for a short period.
Isolated convection during the daylight hours with widely
scattered nocturnal convection.

Rip Currents: Will maintain a moderate risk of rip currents
through tomorrow at area beaches.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  97  75  97  75 /  20  30  60  20
SSI  93  79  94  79 /  20  10  50  30
JAX  96  76  96  76 /  30  20  70  20
SGJ  93  77  94  76 /  30  10  70  20
GNV  94  74  93  74 /  80  30  80  10
OCF  94  75  94  75 /  80  40  90  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$