![National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration](/build/images/header/noaa.d87e0251.png)
![National Weather Service](/build/images/header/nws.4e6585d8.png)
![United States Department of Commerce](/build/images/header/doc.b38ba91a.png)
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
298 FXUS62 KJAX 161405 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 1005 AM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 1005 AM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf No major updates needed on the forecast for today. Showers and isolated thunderstorms are beginning to move into the area from the Gulf, and will continue to move eastward this morning. Boundary interactions from outflow of storms and the sea breezes will create numerous showers and thunderstorms this afternoon, with convection winding down around sunset. && .NEAR TERM... Issued at 338 AM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf A pretty status quo persistence type of forecast continues into today, as the strength and orientation of low level ridging across the area continues a light to modest south/southwest flow and temperatures a bit above normal. The flow should once again be strong enough to keep the sea breeze pinned close to the I-95 corridor area, with a surge from the Gulf sea breeze and usual microscale boundaries helping to fuel daytime convection. A weak/subtle mid level shortwave/low embedded within a more elongated trough over the southeast US will move across southern GA through this evening, which should help to enhance convective activity over this area compared to Monday. Overall expecting numerous coverage for most of the area by this afternoon, with the above mentioned smaller scale boundaries be the main driving force over northeast FL compared to slightly more synoptic forcing further north. Similar to the past few days, locally strong pulse storms will be possible with some gusty winds up to the 40-50mph range. However, buoyancy does look to be generally more of a "long skinny" CAPE type profile, and therefore torrential downpours and minor flooding the other primary hazard with high PWATs of 2 inches +. As mentioned above, temperatures are expected to remain a bit above average today, in combination with dew points in the mid 70s to upper 70s closer to the coast. Should stay mainly below heat advisory criteria inland where some more afternoon mixing occurs. However, have placed coastal regions in a heat advisory this afternoon and evening where apparent temps in the 105-110 range will be the normal for a good portion of the day. Convection mostly wanes after sunset tonight, though activity over southeast GA and especially coastal/offshore GA may take a bit longer to settle down due to the aforementioned weak synoptic forcing lingering. Lows in the mid to upper 70s expected tonight. && .SHORT TERM... (Wednesday through Thursday night) Issued at 338 AM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024 Persistence in the broader synoptic flow pattern continues through the Thursday with the western extension of the Bermuda ridge laying to the south and troughing positioned to the northwest. Initially on Wednesday the southwesterly flow between those features will be fairly light allowing the Atlantic sea breeze to push inland toward the I-95 corridor. By Thursday, gradients will tighten as a reinforcing shortwave digs across the eastern US and briefly flattens the ridge. This will enhance zonal flow enough to keep the sea breeze pinned to the beaches or offshore a few miles Thursday afternoon. All in all, the Gulf sea breeze will be dominant and interact with the Atlantic sea breeze each afternoon, leading to numerous showers and storms along the collision corridor. Storm characteristics Wednesday will mostly standard-issue with a few strong storms possible. Stronger storms may be more common and occur an earlier in the day Thursday due to the enhanced steering winds. The stretch of hotter than normal heat continues and Heat Advisories may be in order each day. Ambient temps will generally max out in the mid/upper 90s with lows in the mid 70s inland and upper 70s at the coast. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Monday) Issued at 338 AM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024 Moist, hot, and unstable conditions will fuel diurnal convection through the weekend as steering flow trends southerly. The sea breeze merger will shift inland through the weekend amid the southerly flow with "likely" storms each day along the collision zone. Due to the blocking ridge aloft, don`t anticipate the stalled frontal zone to the north to sag far enough south to enhance flood or severe storm risk across SE GA. Same story appears to continue into next week with above normal storm chances. The one feature to note is an easterly wave that a few ensemble members propagate across the Caribbean and northwestward across the Florida peninsula Monday and Tuesday. This could bring an additional surge of tropical moisture and enhance the threat of strong/severe storms but it`s far too early to get overly detailed. Temperatures should trend toward typical mid July readings, low 90s, during the period. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 717 AM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024 The east coast sea breeze is expected to be pinned close to the coast due to the synoptic west to southwest flow around the Bermuda Ridge axis to our south. With PWATs 2+ inches and inland ambient temperatures in the mid to upper 90s will have plenty of lift along the sea breeze front for scattered to numerous slow moving thunderstorms near and over the fields this afternoon and evening. For now have TEMPOs with MVFR TS conditions but may have to adjust those down in both visibility and ceilings depending upon what the 12 utc sounding indicates. Will indicate variable winds of 20 to 30 knots in and near thunderstorms, again subject to change. && .MARINE... Issued at 338 AM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024 The axis of Atlantic high pressure will stretch across the Florida peninsula through midweek, keeping a prevailing southerly wind flow in place across our local waters. Atlantic high pressure will sink southward later this week as a frontal boundary enters the southeastern states. Mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms will increase in coverage throughout our local waters later this week as this boundary stalls to the northwest of the region. Rip Currents: Rip current risk will be moderate at all area beaches through Wednesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 93 75 95 76 / 50 40 60 20 SSI 90 79 92 78 / 50 40 60 30 JAX 93 76 95 76 / 60 30 60 20 SGJ 92 77 94 77 / 60 30 60 20 GNV 93 74 93 73 / 70 50 70 10 OCF 92 74 93 75 / 70 40 70 10 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for FLZ124-125-133-138. GA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for GAZ154-166. AM...None. && $$