975
FXUS62 KJAX 161833
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
233 PM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 233 PM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop and
move eastward this afternoon, later interacting with the pinned
Atlantic sea breeze. Main hazards will be gusty winds and locally
heavy downpours. Convection will taper off around sunset, with
lows in the mid 70s inland, and upper 70s along the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday through Thursday night)
Issued at 233 PM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024

Pattern for moist southwesterly flow with daily bouts of showers
and thunderstorms, forming most heavily along sea breeze
boundaries and areas of collision, will continue through midweek
with zonal flow becoming more enhanced by Thursday as the pressure
gradient between high pressure ridging to the south and the high
pressure boundary to the north tightens and results in a more
distinct southwesterly wind profile pressing back the diurnal east
coast sea breeze. Temperatures will continue to be above average
through this period with daily max temps reaching into the mid 90s
with Heat Advisory conditions possible during peak heating.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 233 PM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024

Prevailing flow will be out of the southwest through the end of
the week and then shift to become more out of the south and then
southeast by the end of the period as the ridge of high pressure
situated to the east shifts to be more to the northeast. Pattern
for daily bouts of convection forming along the sea breeze
boundaries and areas of collision will continue through the
weekend. Temperatures will be above average through the end of the
week and into the weekend with max temps rising into the 90s and a
potential for Heat Advisory conditions through the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 118 PM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024

Models have not been doing a great job today for thunderstorm
development, so have adjusted tempo timing for TS in all of the
TAF sites up a few hours. Around sunset, convection will diminish
leaving VFR conditions overnight with the exception of visibility
restrictions at VQQ pre-dawn.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 233 PM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024

The axis of Atlantic high pressure will stretch across the Florida
peninsula through midweek, keeping a prevailing southerly wind
flow in place across our local waters. Atlantic high pressure will
sink southward later this week as a frontal boundary enters the
southeastern states. Mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms
will increase in coverage throughout our local waters later this
week as this boundary stalls to the northwest of our local waters.

Rip Currents: Moderate rip current risk continues through tomorrow
for NE FL and SE GA beaches.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  75  95  75  95 /  40  60  20  60
SSI  79  93  78  93 /  40  60  30  60
JAX  76  95  76  96 /  30  60  20  70
SGJ  77  94  77  94 /  30  60  20  60
GNV  74  92  73  94 /  50  70  10  70
OCF  74  93  75  94 /  40  70  10  80

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for FLZ124-125-133-138.

GA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for GAZ233-166.

AM...None.
&&

$$