605
FXUS62 KJAX 190532
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
132 AM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 819 PM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

There is some lingering and isolated convection over eastern
Putnam County where some thunderstorm wind gusts of 40 mph are
possible over the next hour over Putnam, southern St. Johns, and
western Flagler counties. After this area of convection dissipates
debris cloudiness will remain in place particular east of HWY 301
through the late evening with the loss of diurnal instability.

Otherwise, dry conditions are expected and mild, with muggy lows
in the low to mid 70s. Some shallow ground fog and mist will be
possible toward sunrise especially where recent moderate to heavy
rainfall occurred.

Current forecast has these current trends.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 147 PM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

A short wave trough moving west to east across SE GA enhanced
afternoon showers and storms with a broken line of west coast sea
breeze convection pressing toward the east coast across NE FL. The
east coast sea breeze was starting to move inland triggering
additional isolated showers and storms near the Atlantic coast.

Expect a continued increase in storms over the next 2-4 hrs
toward the I-95 corridor and St. Johns River basin as westward
moving convection converges with the east coast sea breeze.
Another area of enhanced area of storms will likely focus across
parts of SE GA and NE FL roughly from the Okefenokee Swamp toward
the St. Marys river where outflows converge later this afternoon.
The main hazards in storms will continue to be gusty wet
downbursts, with magnitude potential a little stronger today with
gusts of 40-60 mph possible. Locally flooding rainfall will
continue to be a concern, especially where boundaries merge with
locally heavy rainfall rates of 2-4 inches/hour possible.

Rainfall will tapper off with loss of diurnal instability and in
the wake of the departing short wave trough this evening, with dry
conditions expected after midnight and mild, but muggy lows in the
low to mid 70s. Some shallow ground fog and mist will be possible
toward sunrise especially where recent heavy rainfall occurred.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Saturday night)
Issued at 147 PM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024

High pressure will be centered to the east through Saturday, with
troughing to the northwest. The location of the high will yield a
flow from the south southwest. This will be an unsettled period,
with convection initiating each afternoon as diurnal heating
destabilizes the airmass. Convection will begin well inland, on the
Gulf sea breeze, then build east across area. Storms will diminish
in strength and coverage during the evening hours with loss of
heating. With the expected flow, the each coast sea breeze will
struggle to get past I95, so anticipate a secondary max in
convection near the I95 corridor later in the afternoon, as inland
storm converge with activity that develops on the east coast sea
breeze.

The high will begin to move more toward the east northeast Saturday
night. This pattern change will be a significant change in the long
term period.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 147 PM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024

The surface high pressure ridge will be located to the east
northeast on Sunday, and will drift further to the northeast later
in the period. With this pattern, the flow will largely be from the
southeast. This will make the east coast sea breeze dominant this
period. Therefore, convection is expected to initiate each afternoon
due to diurnal heating, with a focus on the east coast sea breeze.
As the sea breeze moves inland, convective chances over eastern
zones will decrease. The 500mb pattern is largely stacked on the
surface ridge, so not expecting the upper flow to push convection
back east. So, best chances east early afternoon, then inland later
in the afternoon, with convergence over I75 corridor from Gulf sea
breeze. Convection will diminish during the evening hours with loss
of heating.

In general temperatures will trend a few degrees above normal this
period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 121 AM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024

Just lingering mid/high clouds at VFR levels through the
overnight hours at all TAF sites with just the usual MVFR fog
chances at VQQ towards sunrise. Southwest steering flow will
continue high rainfall chances over 60% this afternoon and
evening and will upgrade to TEMPO groups at all TAF sites with
first arrival at GNV in the 18-22Z range, at JAX/VQQ in the 19-23Z
range and SSI/SGJ/CRG in the 20-24Z range and will include at
least MVFR CIGS/VSBYS and gusty winds to 30 knots. Stronger winds
and IFR conds possible in heavier activity and will likely be
adjusted as convection kicks off Friday afternoon. Activity should
end in the 01-02Z time frame with lingering VFR convective debris
clouds through the end of the TAF period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 147 PM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024

High pressure across south Florida will continue through Saturday
with fronts lingering across south Georgia. This will continue
prevailing southwest winds with a daily Atlantic coast sea breeze
near the immediate coast and mainly afternoon and evening
thunderstorms. The ridge will build north of the local waters
early next week which will bring a prevailing southeasterly wind
pattern across the local waters and increase morning and early
afternoon rainfall potential with building combined seas.

Rip Currents: Moderate rip current risk for all local beaches
through Friday. The rip current risk increases early next week
(Moderate to possibly High) as ESE winds develop over the near
shore Atlantic waters and swells increase.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  74  94  73  92 /  60  70  30  80
SSI  79  92  77  91 /  50  70  50  80
JAX  76  95  75  93 /  40  80  30  80
SGJ  77  93  76  92 /  40  70  30  70
GNV  74  92  73  92 /  40  90  20  90
OCF  74  93  75  93 /  30  90  20  90

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$