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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
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771 FXUS62 KJAX 191057 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 657 AM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024 ...New AVIATION... .NEAR TERM... (Today and Tonight) Issued at 233 AM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf Southwest steering flow at the surface and in the mid levels combined with atmospheric PWATs around 2 inches will continue a near repeat of conditions from yesterday as late morning/early afternoon convection over inland areas that will track East to Northeast at 10-20 mph and reach the East Coast sea breeze that should reach into the US 17 to US 301 corridors in the mid/late afternoon hours and expect this convergence to trigger numerous showers and storms with strong/gusty winds to 50 mph along with heavy rainfall/localized flooding and frequent lightning. This activity should then continue at strong levels as it pushes E-NE through the Atlantic Coastal Counties/I-95 corridor through the early evening hours and into the Atlantic Coastal waters around sunset, with convection fading towards the late evening hours and ending by midnight. Timing of the onset of convection will determine eventual daytime Max temps, but overall expect widespread lower to middle 90s inland and around 90F at the Atlantic beaches and these combined with dewpoints into the middle 70s should push heat indices into the 104-108F range, likely just below Heat Advisory levels at this time. Overnight lows in the 70s over inland areas and near 80F at the Atlantic beaches. && .SHORT TERM... (Saturday through Sunday night) Issued at 233 AM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024 A mostly southerly flow through the weekend as high pressure sits to the east of the region, allowing for the sea breezes to venture inland. PWATs hovering around the 2" range, will see enough moisture for convection to develop along the sea breezes. Saturday, the higher chances for any convective development, will likely begin along the I-75 corridor and US-301 during the early afternoon and spread eastward towards the I-95 corridor by the late afternoon to early evening. The same pattern will look to continue on Sunday as well. Early afternoon showers will keep temperatures in check in the lower to mid 90s. Heat index values currently expected to stay just below criteria for heat advisory at this time for the weekend, but higher values will be expected along the coast. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Thursday) Issued at 233 AM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024 The high pressure will still be present at the start of the period to the east of the region, with a northeast shift beginning sometime late Tuesday into Wednesday. We can expect to see the same pattern of afternoon showers and storms for the first two days of the upcoming week as moisture moves in from the SE keeping PWAT values hovering near the 2" mark. As the high pressure shifts towards the NE, precipitation chances will dip a bit as some dry air moves into the area, but still likely will see the daily shower and storm activity along the sea breezes. Temperatures will trend near to above normal with highs in the low-mid 90s and lows in the 70s. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 647 AM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024 Lingering mid and high clouds early this morning with VFR conditions at all terminals and light SSW winds 3-6 kts. Southwest steering flow will continue high rainfall chances (over 60%) this afternoon and evening with first arrival TS at GNV indicated in a 17-21Z TEMPO group. Continued TEMPO for TS at JAX/VQQ in the 19-23Z time frame and SSI/SGJ/CRG in the 20-24Z time frame with MVFR restrictions and gusty winds VRB 30kts. Stronger winds and IFR conditions possible in heavier TS activity, with AMDs likely later this afternoon based on convective trends. Convection will press offshore of the Atlantic coast the 00-02Z time frame with lingering VFR convective debris clouds overnight and light SSW winds at coastal terminals after 06z (< 6 kts) to calm winds inland. Shallow ground fog/mist possible after 07z Saturday where heavy rainfall recently occurred, but confidence not high enough to include in TAFs. && .MARINE... Issued at 233 AM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024 No headlines expected over the next 5 days as high pressure ridge from the Western Atlantic will be across or just south of the local waters through early next week. This will continue a general south to southwest flow through the period at 10-15 knots with seas 2-4 ft, along with daily sea breeze along the local beaches from the Southeast. A few evening/nocturnal southerly wind surges could briefly reach into the 15-20 knot range, but not likely to last long enough to warrant any headlines. Main impacts will be offshore moving storms during the afternoon and evening hours with strong/gusty winds to 30-40 knots, heavy rainfall and dangerous lightning. Rip Currents: Low to moderate risk of rip currents will continue through the weekend as mainly south to southwest flow becomes briefly onshore Southeasterly during the afternoon hours at the local beaches with surf/breakers around 2 ft. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 94 72 93 74 / 80 50 60 30 SSI 90 78 90 78 / 60 70 60 40 JAX 94 75 93 76 / 70 50 80 30 SGJ 93 76 93 76 / 60 60 70 20 GNV 94 73 93 74 / 70 50 80 20 OCF 93 73 93 75 / 60 60 80 20 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...None. && $$