Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
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735 FXUS62 KJAX 011039 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 639 AM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024 ...New AVIATION... .NEAR TERM... (Today through Tonight) Issued at 400 AM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf Broad low level troughing extends from the Carolinas southwest into the FL panhandle. PWATs on the SPC analysis remain up near 2 to 2.5 inches, with the highest values over southeast GA. An area of stratiform rain is pushing southward over our GA zones as earlier convection just north of the area weakened, and is pushing southward given the northerly mid to upper level flow. The trough will continue to sag southward today with daytime heating and sea breezes, and plentiful moisture will lead to numerous to widespread showers and storms, most numerous over parts of southeast GA and inland northeast FL. Given the signal from HREF and WPC slight risk of excessive rain, have introduced a flood watch 2pm-10 pm for part of our southeast GA zones. The area counties in place for the watch consist of Wayne, part of Glynn, Brantley, and Pierce. It`s possible this could be expanded a bit but confidence was not high enough to include more areas. The rainfall amounts in the watch are up to 1-3 inches, and some areas of 4-5 inches appear likely. For the rest of southeast GA and parts of northeast FL, locally heavy rainfall certainly possible due to the very moist airmass with the 00z and 12z JAX soundings sampling 2.3 and 2.1 inches, respectively. Also, given the moist and daytime heating, locally strong to briefly severe wind gusts are possible and SPC has southeast GA and northeast FL in a marginal risk of severe storms. Heat indices may near heat advy criteria today but precip and cloudiness will largely prevent criteria from being met. HIghs generally in the lower 90s anticipated. Tonight, numerous showers and storms look to be ongoing in the evening, especially inland, as the trough axis shifts notably into southeast GA and northerly FL after midnight and toward dawn. However, there is not great agreement in the Convective Allowing Models (CAM) so this part of the forecast already becomes low confidence. Mostly cloudy skies may slowly improve overnight but lows again will be mainly in the mid 70s. && .SHORT TERM... (Tuesday through Wednesday night) Issued at 400 AM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024 Pattern of scattered to numerous showers and storms will continue through midweek as the weakening frontal boundary stalls to the north over Georgia. Thunderstorms will be capable of producing heavy rains with a potential for localized flooding as PWAT values ahead of the frontal boundary will measure between about 2.2 to 2.6 inches through midweek. High temperatures for this period will be in the 90s for most inland areas and in the upper 80s along the coast and for inland areas of southeast Georgia north of Waycross. Overnight low temperatures will drop down into the mid 70s over inland areas and in the upper 70s along the coastline. Heat advisory conditions may be possible on Tuesday and Wednesday as heat index levels rise to 108 and above during peak daytime heating. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Sunday) Issued at 400 AM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024 Diurnal convection will become less widespread By Thursday and Friday as high pressure situated to the northeast acts to draw drier air over the forecast area from out of the north. Models currently show some disparity as to the placement of drier air by the end of the weekend, with a potential for more widespread diurnal convective developments on Sunday. Daily high temperatures will rise to near record high temperatures during the latter part of the week and into the weekend, with heat index values expected to reach Heat Advisory levels through the end of the period. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 630 AM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024 MVFR and IFR ceilings are expected to persist off and on through the morning hours with showers and storms building in by around 18-19z today. Potential for strong to severe storms forming over SE GA and NE FL today with storms capable of producing heavy localized rainfall. Convection will become more dispersed for most sites by around 01-02z however overnight storms are possible, however low ceilings and vicinity thunderstorms may persist for SSI through into Tuesday morning. && .MARINE... Issued at 400 AM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024 Breezy southerly flow expected through tonight and then becomes more east and southeast near 10-15 kt Tue through Wed as troughing and sfc frontal boundary move into the area. The frontal boundary will likely dissipate by Wed near the FL/GA line. Sfc high pressure will build in from the north mid to late week. Winds and seas upwards of 10-15 kt or solid 15 kt through tonight, and seas of 2-3 ft. Typical winds and seas Tue through Fri at near 10 kt and seas of 2-3 ft, except higher near showers and storms. Rip Currents: A low-end moderate rip current threat with surf of about 2 ft and side shore winds this aftn. Little change noted for Tue but could end up a slightly lower threat. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 400 AM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024 Deep tropical moisture over the region will lead to heavy downpours from convection especially along and ahead of an approaching frontal boundary/trough from the north. WPC has placed SE GA in a slight risk of excessive rainfall today. Localized areas could see rain amounts of 3 inches, with higher amounts of 5 inches possible. A flood watch was introduced for a few southeast GA counties for this threat. Refinements to the watch may be needed later today. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 92 74 88 74 / 80 50 80 30 SSI 90 78 89 79 / 60 60 80 40 JAX 94 75 92 76 / 60 50 80 30 SGJ 93 77 92 78 / 40 40 80 40 GNV 91 74 92 74 / 60 40 90 20 OCF 92 75 93 76 / 60 30 90 30 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...Flood Watch from 2 PM EDT this afternoon through this evening for GAZ136-151>153. AM...None. && $$