217
FXUS64 KJAN 080938
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
438 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

...New DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 430 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

Today through tonight: The primary focus in the near term will be
on dangerous heat stress and the potential for severe weather.
Hurricane Beryl is making landfall early this morning on the TX
coast, and it is expected to weaken as it tracks N-NE across
eastern TX toward the ArkLaTex region today through tonight.
For much of today, moisture convergence and convective bands
should remain well west of the forecast area, but as Beryl
becomes more baroclinic/asymmetric and daytime heating/instability
peaks, we should see a strong convective band make a greater push
to the east into northeast LA and southeast AR.

While low level shear will be marginal for tornadogenesis in our
area, steep low level lapse rates and moderately strong CAPE
values should support strong to potentially severe wind gusts. As
you go west, low level shear and the threat for tornadoes should
pick up quickly, but confidence is fairly high that this greater
threat will bypass our area as we go through the night. With all
of this said, we continue to message a marginal severe weather
risk for northwest portions of the area with emphasis on damaging
wind gusts. In addition to the severe weather potential, dangerous
heat will become more intense and widespread today, and we have
issued a heat advisory accordingly for most of the area. /EC/

Tuesday through Monday: The remnants of TC Beryl will be the main
weather influence Tuesday as it transitions into a tropical
depression and heads for the Ohio River Valley. In its wake, a
cold front/frontal boundary will push southward to just across the
Natchez Trace corridor as drier cooler air settles into the
region. Wednesday will be the "coolest" day of the week with high
temps topping out in the upper 80s to low 90s areawide, but expect
temperatures to quickly recover. As we go later into the week,
low level ridging will become more centered over our region, and
this will help to promote a warming trend and keep moist and
unstable air around for continued diurnal convective rainfall
coverage. It does appear that the heat may return to greater
intensity by the time we start next weekend. /KP/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1242 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. There
will be an uptick in southeast surface wind as we go through
Monday aftn into the evng and the possibility of isolated shra/ts
with heating, but most convective rainfall associated with
"Beryl" will stay west of the TAF sites through the period. /EC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       95  77  92  72 /  30  20  80  10
Meridian      97  75  93  72 /  40  20  80  20
Vicksburg     94  78  90  71 /  20  30  50  10
Hattiesburg   97  78  92  75 /  30  20  90  10
Natchez       94  76  90  72 /  30  40  60  10
Greenville    94  76  87  70 /  20  40  60  10
Greenwood     97  77  91  71 /  20  30  70  20

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for MSZ019-025>066-072>074.

LA...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for LAZ009-016-025-026.

AR...None.

&&

$$

EC/KP/EC