603
FXUS64 KJAN 081815 AAC
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
115 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

...New AVIATION...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 1002 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

No major changes are planned for the going forecast for today. The
area remains in a soupy airmass as TS Beryl moves inland over
southeast TX. The system remains on track to stay well west of
our area across the ArkLaTex and through central AR. Beryl is a
relatively compact storm, and the brunt of precip shield will
remain near and even slightly to the left of the center which will
keep the highest rainfall totals to our west. Only some trailing
broken feeder bands are likely to trail across our area, mainly
late this afternoon into this evening. Initially weaker low level
shear will keep the tornado threat minimal initially, but some of
these cells could pull down stronger ambient flow aloft resulting
in an isolated damaging wind threat. Low level shear will
increase late tonight into Tuesday morning, but by then,
convection should be less widespread and generally weaker.
Overall, the severe weather threat is conditional and isolated in
our neck of the woods.

In spite of increasing mid and high cloudiness, there will still
be enough insolation and plentiful low level moisture today for
heat indices to reach critical thresholds, except across parts of
AR and north LA where clouds will be thicker. A Heat Advisory
remains in effect for much of the area through early this evening.
/DL/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 430 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

Today through tonight: The primary focus in the near term will be
on dangerous heat stress and the potential for severe weather.
Hurricane Beryl is making landfall early this morning on the TX
coast, and it is expected to weaken as it tracks N-NE across
eastern TX toward the ArkLaTex region today through tonight.
For much of today, moisture convergence and convective bands
should remain well west of the forecast area, but as Beryl
becomes more baroclinic/asymmetric and daytime heating/instability
peaks, we should see a strong convective band make a greater push
to the east into northeast LA and southeast AR.

While low level shear will be marginal for tornadogenesis in our
area, steep low level lapse rates and moderately strong CAPE
values should support strong to potentially severe wind gusts. As
you go west, low level shear and the threat for tornadoes should
pick up quickly, but confidence is fairly high that this greater
threat will bypass our area as we go through the night. With all
of this said, we continue to message a marginal severe weather
risk for northwest portions of the area with emphasis on damaging
wind gusts. In addition to the severe weather potential, dangerous
heat will become more intense and widespread today, and we have
issued a heat advisory accordingly for most of the area. /EC/

Tuesday through Monday: The remnants of TC Beryl will be the main
weather influence Tuesday as it transitions into a tropical
depression and heads for the Ohio River Valley. In its wake, a
cold front/frontal boundary will push southward to just across the
Natchez Trace corridor as drier cooler air settles into the
region. Wednesday will be the "coolest" day of the week with high
temps topping out in the upper 80s to low 90s areawide, but expect
temperatures to quickly recover. As we go later into the week,
low level ridging will become more centered over our region, and
this will help to promote a warming trend and keep moist and
unstable air around for continued diurnal convective rainfall
coverage. It does appear that the heat may return to greater
intensity by the time we start next weekend. /KP/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 113 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

VFR conditions to start the TAF period, with the chance for
isolated SHRA or TSRA to produce briefly variable conditions
before 06Z. Increasing chances for low stratus and showers with
MVFR conditions after 06Z. /NF/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       95  78  92  72 /  30  20  80  10
Meridian      97  75  93  72 /  40  20  80  20
Vicksburg     94  77  90  71 /  20  40  50  10
Hattiesburg   97  78  92  75 /  30  20  90  10
Natchez       94  75  90  72 /  30  50  60  10
Greenville    94  75  87  70 /  20  70  60  10
Greenwood     97  77  91  71 /  20  50  70  20

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ018-019-025>066-
     072>074.

LA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for LAZ009-016-025-026.

AR...None.
&&

$$

DL/EC/NF