381
FXUS64 KJAN 081938
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
238 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

...New DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 237 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

Through Tuesday: Tropical Storm Beryl is now lifting northward
across East TX, and has prompted the development of numerous
tornadoes across eastern TX and western LA where low level shear
is currently strong. The bulk of precip with the system is focused
near and north of the center with trailing convective bands to
the southeast. While this will keep most precip near the track of
the center and west of our area, some of the trailing bands may
shift into or build eastward into our area very late this
afternoon into tonight. Training of such a rain band tonight could
drop a localized inch or two of rain, but no widespread flooding
threat is anticipated. Ambient upper flow is strong enough that
this activity could pull isolated damaging wind gusts to the
surface, mainly west of I-55 heading into this evening. Stronger
low level SRH is not expected to move into our area until very
late tonight or early Tuesday morning around the time these bands
may be decreasing. However, there is still conditional potential
for a tornado mainly along and west of the MS River this evening
if there becomes sufficient overlay between the increasing shear
and advancing convective bands. For these hazards, a marginal
severe weather risk continues to be advertised into tonight.
Outside of convection, gradient wind will increase late tonight
through Tuesday across northeast LA, southeast AR, and northwest
MS closer to the center of Beryl. Wind gusts in the 30 to 40 mph
range will be possible in those areas, which could result in
downed limbs or even weak trees.

Lingering showers and perhaps an isolated storm will shift
eastward across the area early in the day Tuesday, but model
guidance indicates dry air will begin to wrap around Beryl and
across our region, causing rain chances to drop off from west to
east through the daytime. However, lower clouds and some lighter
rain may linger later into the day from the ArkLaMiss Delta into
north MS closer to the center of the storm. In addition, outside
of more dense sky cover, sufficient warming and lingering humidity
is expected across east MS to achieve heat indices around 105F.
For this, we will highlight limited heat stress potential.

Wednesday through Friday: With drier air moving into the region
behind Beryl, it appears we will experience a pleasant break from
high humidity and heat stress. On Wednesday, temperatures will be
closer to seasonal norms or even slightly below, though they will
trend back upward through the end of the week. Dewpoints will fall
into the 60s at times, and morning low temps in the 60s are even
possible if not likely across a large chunk of the area. Rain
chances will be limited, but isolated afternoon convection still
can`t be ruled out across south MS and south LA, especially toward
the end of the week as moisture very slowly recovers.

Saturday through next Monday: For this weekend, mid/upper ridging
over the Southeast US coast will build westward and expand along
the northern Gulf Coast. This will result in a trend back to
seasonably warmer conditions with high temps getting back into the
upper 90s in some spots. Deep layer and low level moisture will
also steadily increase again by this time frame, so heat stress
may become an increasing issue again as heat indices in the triple
digits become more common. Somewhat greater, albeit still
isolated to scattered, coverage of diurnal convection is also
expected. /DL/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 113 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

VFR conditions to start the TAF period, with the chance for
isolated SHRA or TSRA to produce briefly variable conditions
before 06Z. Increasing chances for low stratus and showers with
MVFR conditions after 06Z. /NF/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       78  91  70  89 /  20  30  10  10
Meridian      75  93  70  91 /  20  60  20  20
Vicksburg     77  86  69  90 /  40  20  10  10
Hattiesburg   78  93  73  93 /  20  70  10  20
Natchez       75  87  70  90 /  50  20  10  10
Greenville    75  83  69  88 /  70  30  20  10
Greenwood     77  88  69  88 /  50  30  20  10

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ018-019-025>066-
     072>074.

LA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for LAZ009-016-025-026.

AR...None.
&&

$$

DL/NF