407
FXUS64 KJAN 062007
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
307 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

...New DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 233 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

Through Tonight:

Anticipated afternoon showers and thunderstorms have developed -
with the bulk of the activity in our forecast area currently
focused in south and southeastern Mississippi coincident with
steepest low-level lapse rates, greatest instability, highest
PWATs, and zone of weak surface convergence. Southwesterly deep-
layer winds shear on the order of 15-25kts should provide at least
some potential to sustain updrafts and organize downdrafts. A few
storms could produce localized damaging wind gusts. The main
limiting factor for rapid updraft growth remains the weak, near-
moist-adiabatic lapse rates through the mid levels in this
tropical air mass. Given the high moisture content of the
atmosphere along the Gulf Coast region (2.2 inches is seasonal max
value for early July), heavy rainfall from slow-moving storms
could also produce localized flash flooding concerns especially in
low lying areas. With some flow and the tropical nature of this
air mass, showers and a storm or two are possible even into the
early morning, though expect chances to taper off overnight. /NF/

Sunday through next Saturday:

The primary influence on our regional weather over the next 4-5
days will be what is currently Tropical Storm Beryl as it moves
toward an anticipated Texas Gulf Coast landfall on Monday and then
becomes absorbed in the westerly flow aloft as it recurves
northeastward Tuesday-Thursday. Regardless of its ultimate
landfalling strength and location, Beryl will be in the process of
becoming post-tropical and weakening as it moves inland through
midweek. This process will bring its envelope of tropical moisture
inland along with a decaying and broadening wind field. While no
tropical headlines are anticipated for our forecast area at this
time, the potential for heavy rainfall and breezy winds will
increase Tuesday morning through Wednesday night. A Limited threat
for flash flooding is highlighted for northeast Louisiana,
southeast Arkansas, and western Mississippi in our latest
graphics. Sustained wind and gust speeds were also nudged a few
mph higher to reflect the expected wind field surrounding the
weakening Beryl in that same time frame. Further adjustments may
be necessary, but potential errors in timing and location of
Beryl`s remnants 4 to 5 days from now makes confidence too low to
outright load in the more aggressive guidance with this forecast
cycle.

The tropical air mass remaining in place over the Gulf Coast
through midweek will support chances for mainly afternoon showers
and thunderstorms each day, and will increase the level of
dangerous heat concerns whenever and wherever shower activity
holds off until later afternoon hours. Will maintain the current
Limited threat graphic for dangerous heat through tomorrow, though
some portion of southern Mississippi and central Louisiana may
warrant an Elevated threat (and Heat Advisory) Sunday depending on
how rainfall today into tomorrow trends. Will revisit this with
the evening and overnight forecast updates. Even after Beryl`s
remnants are swept away from the region, an upper-level trough
over the central CONUS will keep southwesterly flow over our area
and hot, humid air along the Gulf Coast. Expect summery
conditions to continue into the weekend. /NF/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

Patchy MVFR ceilings are hanging on from the morning across south
and east MS and central LA, but these are in the process of
lifting and breaking up. Scattered SHRA and TS will be possible
this afternoon, mainly along and south of I-20, decreasing early
this evening. Another round of scattered low stratus and
localized fog is expected to develop Sunday morning near daybreak
and lasting through mid to late morning. It is possible not all
sites will be impacted, but those that are may see IFR or LIFR
conditions. /DL/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       74  91  76  94 /  20  60  20  50
Meridian      72  94  73  95 /  20  70  20  60
Vicksburg     74  90  75  93 /  10  60  10  40
Hattiesburg   75  95  76  95 /  30  70  10  50
Natchez       73  90  74  93 /  20  60  10  40
Greenville    73  92  76  94 /  10  30  10  40
Greenwood     73  92  76  94 /  10  40  10  40

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

NF/DL