Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
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561 FXUS64 KJAN 070546 AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 1246 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 ...New AVIATION... .MESOSCALE UPDATE... Issued at 1001 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 Rest of tonight... A quiet night is on tap. Evening analysis indicates the region caught between developing longwave trough across a large portion of the CONUS, while Tropical Storm Beryl is currently moving northwestward across the west-central Gulf of Mexico. Our region remains under deep, tropical moist regime, with frontal zone stalled across the Gulf Coast states. Moisture plume emanating from Beryl along this stationary frontal zone will keep dewpoints high overnight. With scattered rain & storms today, this will combine with high moist boundary layer to support some stratus & patchy fog redevelopment overnight. Dense fog looks unlikely. Rain has winded down & isn`t expected until after daybreak Sunday. No major changes needed. Lows will be seasonable in the low-mid 70s. Updates are out. /DC/ && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 233 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 Through Tonight: Anticipated afternoon showers and thunderstorms have developed - with the bulk of the activity in our forecast area currently focused in south and southeastern Mississippi coincident with steepest low-level lapse rates, greatest instability, highest PWATs, and zone of weak surface convergence. Southwesterly deep- layer winds shear on the order of 15-25kts should provide at least some potential to sustain updrafts and organize downdrafts. A few storms could produce localized damaging wind gusts. The main limiting factor for rapid updraft growth remains the weak, near- moist-adiabatic lapse rates through the mid levels in this tropical air mass. Given the high moisture content of the atmosphere along the Gulf Coast region (2.2 inches is seasonal max value for early July), heavy rainfall from slow-moving storms could also produce localized flash flooding concerns especially in low lying areas. With some flow and the tropical nature of this air mass, showers and a storm or two are possible even into the early morning, though expect chances to taper off overnight. /NF/ Sunday through next Saturday: The primary influence on our regional weather over the next 4-5 days will be what is currently Tropical Storm Beryl as it moves toward an anticipated Texas Gulf Coast landfall on Monday and then becomes absorbed in the westerly flow aloft as it recurves northeastward Tuesday-Thursday. Regardless of its ultimate landfalling strength and location, Beryl will be in the process of becoming post-tropical and weakening as it moves inland through midweek. This process will bring its envelope of tropical moisture inland along with a decaying and broadening wind field. While no tropical headlines are anticipated for our forecast area at this time, the potential for heavy rainfall and breezy winds will increase Tuesday morning through Wednesday night. A Limited threat for flash flooding is highlighted for northeast Louisiana, southeast Arkansas, and western Mississippi in our latest graphics. Sustained wind and gust speeds were also nudged a few mph higher to reflect the expected wind field surrounding the weakening Beryl in that same time frame. Further adjustments may be necessary, but potential errors in timing and location of Beryl`s remnants 4 to 5 days from now makes confidence too low to outright load in the more aggressive guidance with this forecast cycle. The tropical air mass remaining in place over the Gulf Coast through midweek will support chances for mainly afternoon showers and thunderstorms each day, and will increase the level of dangerous heat concerns whenever and wherever shower activity holds off until later afternoon hours. Will maintain the current Limited threat graphic for dangerous heat through tomorrow, though some portion of southern Mississippi and central Louisiana may warrant an Elevated threat (and Heat Advisory) Sunday depending on how rainfall today into tomorrow trends. Will revisit this with the evening and overnight forecast updates. Even after Beryl`s remnants are swept away from the region, an upper-level trough over the central CONUS will keep southwesterly flow over our area and hot, humid air along the Gulf Coast. Expect summery conditions to continue into the weekend. /NF/ && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1241 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 Mainly VFR conditions and light surface wind will prevail through the forecast period. Exceptions will be associated with areas of sub VFR stratus that develop through early morning and persist until mid morning, mainly over southeast half of the area. There may be considerable coverage of SHRA/TS this afternoon, also mainly over the southeast half of the area. /EC/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 76 94 75 90 / 20 50 30 80 Meridian 73 95 73 93 / 20 60 30 80 Vicksburg 75 93 74 88 / 10 40 30 80 Hattiesburg 76 95 76 92 / 10 50 20 80 Natchez 74 93 75 88 / 10 40 30 80 Greenville 76 94 74 88 / 10 40 40 70 Greenwood 76 94 74 90 / 10 40 30 70 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ DC/DL/NF/EC