Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
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569 FXUS64 KJAN 070946 AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 446 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 ...New DISCUSSION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 353 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 Today through tonight: A weak frontal boundary continues to focus greater moisture over southern portions of the forecast area as of early this morning, but the front and moisture will lift north later today into tonight to as southerly flow increases downwind of an approaching upper level trough. As a result, showers and storms that develop during peak heating should have greater coverage over the forecast area than yesterday. In addition, there continues to be a limited threat for dangerous heat, and no adjustments were needed for the current heat graphic. Storms are expected to diminish early this evening with loss of heating, and a mostly quiet weather night is in store thereafter. /EC/ Monday through Next Saturday night: TC Beryl will be the main weather influence through early this week as it makes landfall along the Texas Gulf Coast Monday and then weakens as it tracks northeast toward the Lower Mississippi Valley region. By late Monday into Tuesday, the remnants of Beryl should make the closest pass to the forecast area, and this is when low level shear will be greatest. SPC has included a marginal risk for severe storms with damaging wind gusts and perhaps a few brief tornadoes over the ArkLaMiss Delta region. Because of drier air that is forecast to wrap around the system, WPC has cut back significantly on QPF for our area, but will maintain the limited flooding threat until this trend becomes definitive. As we go later into the week, the upper level trough will become more centered over our region, and this will help keep moist and unstable air around for continued diurnal convective rainfall coverage. It does appear that the heat may return to greater intensity by the time we start next weekend. /EC/KP/ && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1241 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 Mainly VFR conditions and light surface wind will prevail through the forecast period. Exceptions will be associated with areas of sub VFR stratus that develop through early morning and persist until mid morning, mainly over southeast half of the area. There may be considerable coverage of SHRA/TS this afternoon, also mainly over the southeast half of the area. /EC/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 92 75 95 75 / 60 20 40 20 Meridian 94 73 96 73 / 70 30 50 20 Vicksburg 91 75 94 75 / 50 20 30 30 Hattiesburg 96 75 97 77 / 50 30 40 20 Natchez 92 75 94 76 / 50 30 40 30 Greenville 93 76 93 75 / 20 20 40 40 Greenwood 93 76 95 75 / 20 20 40 30 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ EC/KP/EC