Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
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377 FXUS64 KJAN 020137 AAB AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson MS 837 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024 ...New MESOSCALE UPDATE... .MESOSCALE UPDATE... Issued at 837 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024 Diurnal convection across parts of southwest MS and central LA has diminished or moved out of the area with the loss of daytime instability. Drier air continues to advect in from the northeast, with dewpoints in the mid 60s across portions of north and east MS. This is in contrast to dewpoints as high as 80 near Natchez. The drier airmass will continue to make a push southward overnight, and should provide for a relatively pleasant morning in most areas. If only it would stick around longer. The current near term forecast is on track, and no changes are planned this evening. /DL/ && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 315 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024 Tonight and Tuesday: Mid afternoon surface analysis showed a dry cold front along and just north of the Interstate 20 corridor. This front has brought in slightly drier air knocking dew points into the mid 60s across our northeast and into the lower 70s just behind the front. Model consensus stalls the front tonight along the Interstate 20 corridor. The low level flow ahead of the front is already northerly and limiting convergence along the front but a low chance of an isolated shower ahead of the front will remain possible through late afternoon. South of the front a hot and moist airmass has led to the continuation of high heat index values. An excessive Heat Warning for our southwest and a Heat Advisory across the south will remain in effect through 8PM. Dry weather is expected tonight. Tuesday with the mid level ridge centered overhead and return flow by afternoon, the stalled frontal boundary will drift back to the north. This will allow for more of our CWA to top out in the upper 90s to near 100F and combine with high humidity to result in high heat index values again. An Excessive Heat Warning has been issued for our southwest again where heat index values will exceed 110F. Wrapping around the Excessive Heat Warning, another Heat Advisory will be in effect. This area is generally along and south of a line from Bastrop to Laurel. By late afternoon isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible across our southern zones while the remainder of the CWA remains dry. /22/ Tuesday night through next Monday... By Tuesday night, low level ridging will build in from the southeast, allowing for moist, southerly flow to increase across the Lower Mississippi River Valley. At the mid-levels, a persistent high pressure will continue to migrate over the Southeast Region. PWATs upwards of 2.5 inches will allow for deep moisture to infiltrate the CWA. Showers and storms will increase Wednesday morning into the afternoon, with isolated to numerous potential for precipitation possible. The highest chance is expected to across southeast MS, while isolated chances remain over the NE LA/SE AR, and NE MS through the evening. By Thursday into Friday, isolated to scattered showers will remain mostly possible across the CWA during peak heating hours, then taper off by the evening hours. Highs through Friday will remain in the middle up upper 90s while lows will struggle to stay below the middle to upper 70s. Dangerous heat concerns will continue into the end of the week as most of the CWA will experience heat indices ranging 105-110+. An "Elevated" risk for dangerous heat is being advertised with the high possibility of an areawide Heat Advisory during those days. By the weekend, a weak frontal system is expected to drop a boundary into the central portions of the area. This will bring scattered to numerous showers and storms across the CWA on Saturday and will temporarily offer some relief from humid conditions going into the next work week for areas mostly along and north of I-20. South of those areas, heat indices may still reach Heat Advisory criteria, but noticeably less humid and heat stress conditions are likely. By Monday, scattered precipitation chances will hang around as low level flow switches from westerly to southerly, allowing for PWATs to be increased going into the week. /AJ/ && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 625 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024 VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period with mainly light wind. Isolated SHRA or TS cannot be ruled out Tue afternoon in the HBG/PIB area, with brief categorical reductions possible. /DL/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 71 97 78 95 / 0 10 0 40 Meridian 68 99 75 94 / 0 10 10 50 Vicksburg 72 98 78 97 / 0 0 0 20 Hattiesburg 75 100 78 94 / 10 30 10 70 Natchez 75 98 78 94 / 10 10 0 40 Greenville 69 97 78 98 / 0 0 0 10 Greenwood 68 97 78 97 / 0 0 0 20 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for MSZ047-048- 053>055-059-061>066-072>074. Excessive Heat Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for MSZ060. LA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for LAZ007>009-015- 016. Excessive Heat Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for LAZ023>026. AR...None. && $$ /