134
FXUS64 KJAN 142014
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
314 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024

...New DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 313 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024

Today and tomorrow...

For the remainder of today, showers will continue to generate along
a remnant low near the northern MS/AL border. Cloud cover will
continue to persist over the region this afternoon as moisture
increases along the closed low. A lack of deep instability also
looks persist across the northeast, where the potential for
precipitation is the greatest, resulting a struggle for any deep
updrafts. A storm or two could be possible in the late afternoon,
but rainfall is expected to remain mostly showers. Temperatures
continue to be on track, with highs in the upper 70s to middle 80s.
By this evening into the overnight, showers will continue to be
likely in the northeast as the low continues to produce decent
moisture along its circulation. Overnight, lingering moisture is
expected to advect into the southern portions of the CWA, creating
the potential for low cigs and patchy fog potential. This is
expected to last until daybreak, however ceilings will struggle to
recuperate.

By tomorrow, a similar pattern is expected to unfold across the
region with the remnant low circulating in the northeast, generating
showers and some storms across the CWA. Cloud cover looks to be
increased across the entire region tomorrow, allowing for highs to
be slightly lower than today. Temperatures are expected to range in
the upper 70s to low 80s north of I-20 and low 80s to the south.
Rain chances will also be extended farther south with a 60-85%
chance in the N/NE and 15-50% chance in the S/SW half of the CWA.
The potential for thunderstorms looks to be a bit higher than today
as deeper instability is generated, but showers are still expected
to dominate. /AJ/

Sunday night through Saturday. No real changes to the
extended forecast. In the mid-term looking for the remnants of
Francine and a stalled/slow moving bounding to drive showers and
thunderstorms for the next couple days. Guidance pops and temps were
good.

The remnants of Francine will continue to plague the region into
early next week. The center of the system will slowly sink south and
wobble from west to east before getting out of the area. The
stalled/slow moving boundary and moist atmosphere will continue to
support efficient rains. Guidance also shows an increase in lapse
rates Monday and an increased winds aloft, so kept thunder chances
for the afternoon. Moisture and clouds seem to hang around at least
into Wednesday with the boundary near the coast, could see some
small rain chances hanging on for the far southern zones Monday into
early Tuesday. Did not add much fog, but with the grounds moist and
stagnant conditions expected, patchy fog is likely for the next few
days. Warm conditions quickly return by late week with slightly
above normal temperatures near 90/70 returning to the area. Current
forecast was good./7/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024

Cigs will toggle btwn MVFR/VFR cigs this afternoon into the
evening due to VCSH/-RA for GTR/GLH/GWO/MEI. By 05z, most sites
will experience decreased cigs and vis due to BR/FG development
overnight, creating IFR/LIFR conditions. By 12Z, vis is expected
to improve but cigs are expected to remain MVFR/IFR. /AJ/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       68  82  69  80 /  10  70  40  70
Meridian      68  80  66  80 /  40  80  70  70
Vicksburg     67  83  68  81 /   0  50  20  50
Hattiesburg   69  85  70  82 /  20  50  40  70
Natchez       66  84  68  82 /   0  30  10  50
Greenville    66  79  68  79 /  20  70  50  50
Greenwood     68  79  68  80 /  30  80  60  50

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

AJ/07/AJ