Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
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822 FXUS64 KJAN 021744 AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 1244 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024 ...New AVIATION... .MESOSCALE UPDATE... Issued at 954 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024 Morning Update: The forecast remains on track, thus no major changes were made to the package. A very broad area of high pressure will continue to dominate the South Central CONUS states through Wednesday. Northerly flow will usher in a drier air mass to northern/north central portions of the CWA while keeping RH values limited enough to keep them under any type of advisory criteria. Throughout the course of the day low level flow will increase as an easterly wave moves into the area. We can expect to see an influx of moisture into the southeastern portions of the CWA thus, while unlikely, a shower and/or a storm will possible in the far south/southeast this afternoon. With this influx of moisture and high temps expected to be right around 100, heat indices are expected to be in excess of 105 in areas south of I-20. The area configuration of the heat products remains unchanged./KP/ && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 354 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024 Today and Tonight: The strong upper-level ridge sliding east along the Gulf Coast will be directly overhead today, resulting in subsidence and weak flow as prevailing influences across our forecast area. The dry air mass which brought some refreshingly cooler temperatures to northern and central parts of the area this morning will be squeezed northward as an easterly wave moves into the area. The increase in moisture over southeast/east Mississippi be enough to trigger a few showers or a storm by late in the afternoon, but capping should be strong enough to limit most of this potential. POPs were trended drier. Area of best overlap between heat and moisture favor areas along and south of the Interstate 20 corridor for a Heat Advisory today (heat index >105) and northeast LA/southwest MS for an Excessive Heat Warning (heat index >110). The returning moisture also means low temps tonight will once again be about 5 degrees warmer than normal. /NF/ Wednesday through next Monday: High pressure and ridging aloft will continue to gradually build east through the region, where it`ll remain centered during the forecast period. Meanwhile at the surface, high pressure will likewise slide further east of the CWA, wedging itself into the region from the east. As this happens, copious amounts of deep moisture will begin feeding back into the CWA through early next week. While this`ll increase humidity levels across the forecast area, it`ll also result in increasing chances for showers and storms each afternoon. These rain chances will be maintained across the CWA through the upcoming weekend and into next Monday. This is due to a frontal boundary dropping south into the region Friday, where it`s currently advertised to stall and eventually washout out over the forecast area Saturday through Monday. The concern for dangerous heat stress will continue across much of the forecast area Wednesday through Friday. Temperatures will be consistent and continue to generally warm into the mid and upper 90s each day during this timeframe. That, coupled with the aforementioned increasing moisture over the area will result in afternoon heat index values climbing above the century mark across much of the CWA. This will especially be the case Wednesday into Thursday, when indices will be more in the 105-110 range areawide. Some relief from the heat will come in the way of scattered to numerous showers and storms over the CWA Friday, as again a frontal boundary sinks into the region Friday afternoon. With this frontal boundary again forecast to stall and washout over the forecast area Saturday through Monday, and the better coverage of convection associated with it, relief from the oppressive heat is expected to be more widespread across the area during this time. /19/ && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1242 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024 VFR conditions will prevail at all sites through the TAF period. Expect light easterly/southeasterly wind of less than 10kts. By 12-13Z Wednesday morning low stratus will be possible at sites HBG and PIB bringing MVFR or lower ceilings./KP/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 78 95 77 94 / 0 40 10 30 Meridian 76 94 74 95 / 10 50 10 40 Vicksburg 78 97 77 95 / 0 20 0 20 Hattiesburg 78 94 76 96 / 20 70 0 50 Natchez 78 95 76 93 / 0 50 0 30 Greenville 75 98 79 96 / 0 20 0 20 Greenwood 76 97 78 94 / 0 20 0 30 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ040-048-049-052- 054>058-061>066-072>074. Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ047- 053-059-060. LA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for LAZ007>009. Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for LAZ015- 016-023>026. AR...None. && $$ KP/19/NF