Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
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797 FXUS64 KJAN 021951 AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 251 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024 ...New DISCUSSION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 250 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024 Today through Next Tuesday: A broad area of high pressure will continue to dominate the South Central States through Wednesday. Northerly flow will continue through this afternoon allowing the dry air mass to stay in the northern/north central portions of the CWA before quickly being overtaken by the southern stream of moisture from the east/southeast. This will allow PWs to jump to right around 2in by overnight areawide with the south/southeast increasing to the 2.25- 2.5in range. While unlikely, this will allow for the possibility to see some pop up showers or storms in the far southeast this afternoon and early evening. Otherwise expect a nice night with mostly clear skies and low temperatures well above climo by 5-10 degrees. Tomorrow high pressure and ridging aloft will steadily continue to build east into the southeastern CONUS states where it will remain for the remainder of the period. We can expect the surface ridge to continue to allow an influx of deep moisture into the area through next week. This will result in increase humidly and chances for showers and storms throughout each afternoon of the period. Storm coverage will be be greatest in the southeast gradually decreasing to the northwest. This will be due to a stalled boundary dropping into Northern MS. While this will be a wet period, it will also be a hot one. High temperatures each day will remain in the mid-high 90s and heat indices in excess of 105-110 degrees leading dangerous heat stress condition. Thus there will be need for heat products areawide throughout the week with much of the area under an "Excessive Heat Warning" Wednesday and potential to continue into Thursday. Areas not under an "Excessive Heat Warning" will likely continue to be included in a "Heat Advisory." By Friday the rain will have provided enough relief to cool temps slightly with only a "Heat Advisory" likely for some areas of northwest MS and southeast AR. Due to this potential, a "Significant" was added both Wednesday and Thursday in the HWO graphics, while "Elevated" southeast of the Natchez Trace both days. By this weekend the stalled boundary will bring greater chances for areawide rainfall each day through Tuesday. This will likely us a break from most heat stress and heat related products from the weekend into early next week as high temps will dip into the lower 90s to upper 80s. /KP/ && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1242 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024 VFR conditions will prevail at all sites through the TAF period. Expect light easterly/southeasterly wind of less than 10kts. By 12-13Z Wednesday morning low stratus will be possible at sites HBG and PIB bringing MVFR or lower ceilings./KP/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 78 96 76 94 / 0 50 10 50 Meridian 76 96 75 95 / 10 60 10 50 Vicksburg 78 97 77 95 / 0 30 0 30 Hattiesburg 78 95 77 96 / 20 80 10 50 Natchez 78 96 77 93 / 0 50 0 30 Greenville 75 99 79 96 / 0 10 0 20 Greenwood 76 98 78 95 / 0 20 0 30 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...Excessive Heat Warning from 10 AM to 8 PM CDT Wednesday for MSZ018-019-025>038-040>044-047>049-053-054-059-060. Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ040-048-049-052- 054>058-061>066-072>074. Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ047- 053-059-060. Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 8 PM CDT Wednesday for MSZ039-045- 046-050>052-055>058-061>066-072>074. LA...Excessive Heat Warning from 10 AM to 8 PM CDT Wednesday for LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026. Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for LAZ007>009. Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for LAZ015- 016-023>026. AR...Excessive Heat Warning from 10 AM to 8 PM CDT Wednesday for ARZ074-075. && $$ KP