042
FXUS64 KJAN 071743 AAC
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1243 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

...New AVIATION...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 949 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

A weak frontal zone remains stalled in the region this morning,
with southwesterly flow aloft carrying tropical moisture over the
boundary and stretching a band of high clouds from the Texas Gulf
Coast toward northeast Mississippi. Some light rain was observed
coming from this deck. This deck will probably persist into the
afternoon and limit peak heating potential for much of the area,
but areas south of the cloud deck could still warm into the mid
90s. Moist and dry air wrapping around Tropical Storm Beryl`s
circulation are organized into bands, with an organized wave of
storms currently approaching the Louisiana coastline at this hour.
East of this band, a corridor of drier air spreading north into
southeast Louisiana and Mississippi should be a limiting factor
for rain chances this afternoon, but latest HRRR runs seem
reasonable in depicting a wave or two of showers and storms
associated with the moister air wrapping into south-central LA.
Elsewhere, it may just be this current light rain and spotty
afternoon showers or storms where enough heating can occur. Do not
have any increased confidence in heat impacts given the cloudiness
present through mid-morning, so will leave current Limited heat
risk graphic messaging as is. Locations south of Interstate 20
could see heat index values near 105 degrees. /NF/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 353 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Today through tonight: A weak frontal boundary continues to focus
greater moisture over southern portions of the forecast area as of
early this morning, but the front and moisture will lift north
later today into tonight to as southerly flow increases downwind
of an approaching upper level trough. As a result, showers and
storms that develop during peak heating should have greater
coverage over the forecast area than yesterday. In addition,
there continues to be a limited threat for dangerous heat, and no
adjustments were needed for the current heat graphic. Storms are
expected to diminish early this evening with loss of heating, and
a mostly quiet weather night is in store thereafter. /EC/

Monday through Next Saturday night: TC Beryl will be the main
weather influence through early this week as it makes landfall
along the Texas Gulf Coast Monday and then weakens as it tracks
northeast toward the Lower Mississippi Valley region. By late
Monday into Tuesday, the remnants of Beryl should make the
closest pass to the forecast area, and this is when low level
shear will be greatest. SPC has included a marginal risk for
severe storms with damaging wind gusts and perhaps a few brief
tornadoes over the ArkLaMiss Delta region. Because of drier air
that is forecast to wrap around the system, WPC has cut back
significantly on QPF for our area, but will maintain the limited
flooding threat until this trend becomes definitive. As we go
later into the week, the upper level trough will become more
centered over our region, and this will help keep moist and
unstable air around for continued diurnal convective rainfall
coverage. It does appear that the heat may return to greater
intensity by the time we start next weekend. /EC/KP/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

VFR conditions with mid to high clouds prevail across most of the
area early this afternoon, though locally broken MVFR stratus
have been persisting over parts of south MS and central LA. VFR
conditions are expected to prevail in most areas through the
remainder of the TAF period with increasing mid/high cloudiness
overnight. Scattered SHRA and TS may result in localized brief
categorical reductions this afternoon through early evening. There
is also some potential for a brief period of low stratus around
daybreak Sunday morning across parts of south MS but confidence
was too low to include in TAFs at this time. /DL/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       75  95  75  92 /  30  20  20  70
Meridian      74  96  73  94 /  30  30  20  70
Vicksburg     75  95  75  90 /  30  40  30  60
Hattiesburg   75  96  77  92 /  20  20  20  80
Natchez       75  94  76  90 /  40  50  30  70
Greenville    76  94  75  88 /  20  20  40  60
Greenwood     76  95  75  91 /  20  20  30  70

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

NF/EC/KP/DL