044
FXUS64 KJAN 080005
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
705 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

...New AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 235 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Through Tonight:

A lifting warm frontal boundary has allowed for more of the
forecast area to experience July heat and humidity this afternoon.
Earlier high cloud cover may have even helped limit mixing of dew
points in the south. With several sites hitting 105 to 110 heat
index values at 1 pm, a Heat Advisory was issued through this
evening for the southern half of our forecast area. An organized
band of convection around the periphery of Tropical Storm Beryl
was bringing showers and thunderstorms to the Texas and western
Louisiana Gulf Coast this afternoon, but a corridor of drier air
northeast of that band was edging into southern parts of our
forecast area to limit convection early this afternoon. Some
convection is still possible mostly south of Interstate 20
through early evening, but limited POPs to scattered (30%) range
given the current trends. Southeasterly flow overnight will keep
our temps warm, and most locations will see a low temp in the mid
70s it looks like. /NF/

Monday through next Sunday:

The primary influence on our regional weather through midweek will
remain what is currently Tropical Storm Beryl as it moves toward
an anticipated Texas Gulf Coast landfall early Monday and then
becomes absorbed in the westerly flow aloft as it recurves
northeastward Tuesday-Wednesday. Beryl will be in the process of
becoming post-tropical and weakening as it moves inland through
midweek. This process will bring its envelope of tropical moisture
inland along with a decaying and broadening wind field. No
tropical headlines are anticipated for our forecast area at this
time, and the current expected path of Beryl`s remnants keeps the
greatest moisture and rainier side west of our forecast area.
Breezy winds are possible late tomorrow into Wednesday, but mainly
Tuesday as the pressure gradient tightens over our forecast area.
A "Limited" gradient wind threat graphic may be needed in the
ArkLaMiss Delta zones if current trends hold (winds in the 20
gust 30 mph range). Continued to blend toward the higher guidance
given the dynamics of the system. The increased flow and wind
shear on the eastern side of Beryl warrants a Marginal Risk for
severe thunderstorms Monday afternoon into evening for northeast
Louisiana, southeast Arkansas, and far western Mississippi.
Isolated tornadoes will be possible severe storms that are able to
organize in that time frame. With axis of heavier precipitation
nudging west of our area, have removed the "Limited" flash flood
messaging from our graphics. Heat will be a concern tomorrow as
well, with humidity increasing and POPs being limited until later
in the afternoon. Have an "Elevated" threat with 105-110 heat
index values expected, and a Heat Advisory will likely be needed
for more of our area tomorrow.

The latest model trends support a drier forecast for most of our
forecast area Wednesday through Friday as higher PWAT air is
squeezed south along the Gulf Coast. Best POPs will be focused
there in addition to limiting higher heat potential through at
least midweek. As the central CONUS upper-level trough fills late
week and ridging becomes more dominant, increasing humidity will
see the return of summer-like POPs and heat indices. /NF/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 705 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

SHRA & TSRA have developed across the I-20 corridor, with some
potential to persist through 08/02Z. Mid-high clouds prevail
across the area, with VFR flight categories prevailing areawide.
Low stratus can`t be ruled out in the Pine Belt in southeast TAF
sites early Monday morning, but confidence remains too low to
introduce during the 00Z TAF cycle. Some additional low probs of
SHRA & TSRA development is psbl into Monday aftn. Sfc winds will
be light & variable through Monday morning, before becoming more
southeasterly & gusty Monday aftn, up to 10mph sustained &
15-20mph gusts. /DC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       75  95  76  91 /  20  20  20  70
Meridian      74  96  74  93 /  20  30  20  80
Vicksburg     75  95  76  90 /  30  30  30  50
Hattiesburg   75  96  77  93 /  20  30  10  80
Natchez       75  94  76  90 /  30  40  40  50
Greenville    76  94  75  89 /  20  20  40  50
Greenwood     76  95  76  91 /  20  20  30  50

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ047>066-072>074.

LA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for LAZ016-023>026.

AR...None.
&&

$$

NF/DC