Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
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728 FXUS64 KJAN 060943 AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 443 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 ...New DISCUSSION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 428 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 Today through tonight: The most impactful weather, including thunderstorm potential and the risk for dangerous heat, will generally be for locations along/south of the I-20 corridor as we begin the weekend. A weak west-to-east oriented frontal boundary will meander over the forecast area this weekend, and the hottest and most humid conditions should generally exist along and south of the boundary, where we expect the development of numerous showers and storms this afternoon. Poor lapse rates will continue to limit updraft/storm intensity, but very moist air with precipitable water (PW) up to 2.4 inches and H850 dewpoints up to 16 deg C will support very efficient and locally heavy rainfall if slow-moving storms become focused. As we go into the evening, storms should diminish quickly and then mostly quiet and humid conditions are expected for the overnight. /EC/ Sunday through Friday night: To begin the forecast period, very moist tropical airmass will continue to flow into the area around weakening high pressure stationed over the southeastern states. The increase in tropical flow will combat the drier air associated with the stalled boundary in the northern portions of the CWA throughout the day eventually pushing the front northward out of the area. With this moist tropical airmass, we can expect to see surface dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s and PWs in the 2 to 2.5 inch range. This tropical airmass will help maintain areawide rain chances throughout the day with the greatest chances being in the southeast. Increasing cloud cover and convection will likely limit daytime temps Sunday for a majority of the CWA, however the southern portions of the CWA will have the opportunity for some early heating allowing for heat indices to approach dangerous heat criteria. Thus the limited heat stress HWO graphic will remain in effect for Sunday. Going into next week: Upper level troughing will continue its track eastward through the central states into the mid MS valley on Monday. Southwesterly flow will persist allowing for continuous deep layer moisture to flow into the area keeping scattered to isolated diurnal convection constant each day of the period. By Tuesday we will see increasing chances for showers and storms along the western edges of the CWA as TC Beryl continues its track. NHC guidance now show the cyclone turn more to the northeast across eastern Texas as it weakens to a depression. This track will help to increase rain chances Tuesday and Wednesday for our area, especially over the ArkLaMiss Delta region where there could end up being a risk for heavy rainfall. As we go through the remainder of the week, we can expect diurnally driven rain and storm chances to continue through end of the period. /KP/ && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1255 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 A considerable amount of IFR/LIFR category stratus is expected for mainly southeast portions of the forecast area through early to mid morning, then expect quickly improving conditions during the late morning. Scattered SHRA/TS will be most prominent during the afternoon to early evening for the southern half of the area. Otherwise, VFR conditions and light surface wind will prevail. /EC/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 90 74 91 75 / 60 30 50 20 Meridian 92 73 93 73 / 60 30 60 30 Vicksburg 90 74 90 75 / 50 10 40 20 Hattiesburg 93 76 94 76 / 70 50 70 20 Natchez 88 74 90 74 / 70 30 50 20 Greenville 92 73 91 75 / 10 10 20 20 Greenwood 93 74 91 75 / 10 10 20 20 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ EC/KP/EC