Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
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200 FXUS64 KJAN 080210 AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 910 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 ...New MESOSCALE UPDATE... .MESOSCALE UPDATE... Issued at 910 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 Rest of tonight... Some outflow banding & subsidence this aftn eventually gave way to convective development late into the aftn & some of this has had some quick robust development over the last few hours. Tropical Storm Beryl is approaching a landfall on the Texas coastline overnight tonight, with satellite presentation becoming more organized as it moves into the northwest Gulf of Mexico. As Beryl makes landfall into the overnight hours, some slightly less tropical air (i.e. total PWs of 1.5-1.6 inches in GOES East satellite imagery) across the Gulf coast is progged to lift northward, helping shut off rain chances after midnight. With moist boundary layer, another seasonably warm night in the low- mid 70s. Some patchy fog or brief stratus can`t be ruled out in this environment in east MS & southeast of the Natchez Trace. Confidence isn`t high enough to introduce any dense fog graphic in the HWO but there are some low HREF probs in the Pine Belt. Kept mention of patchy fog in the forecast. Expect rain to remain off to the northwest overnight. Updates are out. /DC/ && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 235 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 Through Tonight: A lifting warm frontal boundary has allowed for more of the forecast area to experience July heat and humidity this afternoon. Earlier high cloud cover may have even helped limit mixing of dew points in the south. With several sites hitting 105 to 110 heat index values at 1 pm, a Heat Advisory was issued through this evening for the southern half of our forecast area. An organized band of convection around the periphery of Tropical Storm Beryl was bringing showers and thunderstorms to the Texas and western Louisiana Gulf Coast this afternoon, but a corridor of drier air northeast of that band was edging into southern parts of our forecast area to limit convection early this afternoon. Some convection is still possible mostly south of Interstate 20 through early evening, but limited POPs to scattered (30%) range given the current trends. Southeasterly flow overnight will keep our temps warm, and most locations will see a low temp in the mid 70s it looks like. /NF/ Monday through next Sunday: The primary influence on our regional weather through midweek will remain what is currently Tropical Storm Beryl as it moves toward an anticipated Texas Gulf Coast landfall early Monday and then becomes absorbed in the westerly flow aloft as it recurves northeastward Tuesday-Wednesday. Beryl will be in the process of becoming post-tropical and weakening as it moves inland through midweek. This process will bring its envelope of tropical moisture inland along with a decaying and broadening wind field. No tropical headlines are anticipated for our forecast area at this time, and the current expected path of Beryl`s remnants keeps the greatest moisture and rainier side west of our forecast area. Breezy winds are possible late tomorrow into Wednesday, but mainly Tuesday as the pressure gradient tightens over our forecast area. A "Limited" gradient wind threat graphic may be needed in the ArkLaMiss Delta zones if current trends hold (winds in the 20 gust 30 mph range). Continued to blend toward the higher guidance given the dynamics of the system. The increased flow and wind shear on the eastern side of Beryl warrants a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms Monday afternoon into evening for northeast Louisiana, southeast Arkansas, and far western Mississippi. Isolated tornadoes will be possible severe storms that are able to organize in that time frame. With axis of heavier precipitation nudging west of our area, have removed the "Limited" flash flood messaging from our graphics. Heat will be a concern tomorrow as well, with humidity increasing and POPs being limited until later in the afternoon. Have an "Elevated" threat with 105-110 heat index values expected, and a Heat Advisory will likely be needed for more of our area tomorrow. The latest model trends support a drier forecast for most of our forecast area Wednesday through Friday as higher PWAT air is squeezed south along the Gulf Coast. Best POPs will be focused there in addition to limiting higher heat potential through at least midweek. As the central CONUS upper-level trough fills late week and ridging becomes more dominant, increasing humidity will see the return of summer-like POPs and heat indices. /NF/ && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 705 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 SHRA & TSRA have developed across the I-20 corridor, with some potential to persist through 08/02Z. Mid-high clouds prevail across the area, with VFR flight categories prevailing areawide. Low stratus can`t be ruled out in the Pine Belt in southeast TAF sites early Monday morning, but confidence remains too low to introduce during the 00Z TAF cycle. Some additional low probs of SHRA & TSRA development is psbl into Monday aftn. Sfc winds will be light & variable through Monday morning, before becoming more southeasterly & gusty Monday aftn, up to 10mph sustained & 15-20mph gusts. /DC/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 75 95 76 91 / 20 20 20 70 Meridian 73 96 74 93 / 20 30 20 80 Vicksburg 75 95 76 90 / 20 30 30 50 Hattiesburg 75 96 77 93 / 20 30 10 80 Natchez 75 94 76 90 / 30 40 40 50 Greenville 76 94 75 89 / 20 20 40 50 Greenwood 76 95 76 91 / 20 20 30 50 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ DC/NF/DC