Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana
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660 FXUS63 KIWX 052336 AFDIWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 736 PM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated thunderstorms diminish by sunset. - Becoming less humid for the weekend with minimal, if any, chances for precipitation. - More seasonable temperatures return Sunday into next week with showers and storms possible starting later Monday night into Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 324 PM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024 Upper level low, centered over SW Wisconsin, will continue to drift east and eventually northeast and begin to fill as 250 mb jet streak exits and overall flow aloft begins to weaken. At the surface, a cold front had slowed considerably, just now entering western portions of IN with extensive cloud cover and an area of lighter showers well in advance of it. Skies generally cleared back across much of IL, but cu has started pop with convective temps around 80 being reached. Instability and mid level lapse rates remain rather low and despite the infringement of the upper level energy little in the way of new development has been noted in the cu field. Strongest development has been across central Lower MI or further south into southern IN/OH. Vis sat showing a line of enhanced cu from the Michigan City area NNE to west of GRR. One shower did manage to develop near Michigan City with little overall development upwards. The initial cell has weakened, but another was trying to develop on the SW flank of the original cell. CAMs have handled the convection rather poorly today depicting greater coverage east including some storms, but all that exists is a weakening area of rain. If any storm can gain some height, a narrow axis of 1000 J/KG DCAPE exists along the front which could bring an isolated strong to locally severe gust. However, have a lot of concerns that any of convection will be able to attain those levels (as depicted by the newly developed showers). SPC maintained the marginal risk along/east of IN-13 but suspect the greatest risk will remain well north. SWOMCD also issued recently for mainly Lower MI with additional details. A dry holiday weekend appears more and more likely for most, if not all of the area. A weak disturbance may move in from the southwest on Saturday, but with moisture removed, should struggle to produce any precip. While I suspect little in the way of measurable precip will occur, maintained a slgt chc in far NW areas Sat AM. Temperature wise, slightly below normal highs expected Saturday (mid to upper 70s) with more seasonable 80s Sunday as upper level heights begin to temporarily increase. Dewpoints will remain at comfortable levels. Somewhat deeper trough approaches to start the new work week with chances for showers and storms arriving possibly as early as Monday afternoon in the NW, but moreso Monday night into Tuesday. Thereafter, a series of troughs keep digging into the Great Lakes, but not overly deep or "cold" as 500 mb heights are 580 dm or higher for the remainder of the forecast period. Better moisture remains to the south so might not see any large chances for showers and storms, but something to watch in the coming days. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 731 PM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024 Isolated thunderstorms on radar as of this writing will steer clear of the terminals. A cold front has cleared KSBN and has yet to arrive at KFWA, but will do so likely within the next 90 minutes or so. Pockets of stratus are noted upstream and as the previous forecaster noted, cold air advection stratus is anticipated overnight. Time-height cross sections are very soupy, especially at KSBN where stratus could linger well into the afternoon. Otherwise, wind at or below 10 knots through the TAF period. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...None. OH...None. MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Fisher AVIATION...Brown