541
FXUS63 KIWX 060610
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
210 AM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated sprinkles or drizzle are possible overnight.

- Becoming less humid for the weekend with minimal, if any,
  chances for precipitation.

- More seasonable temperatures return Sunday into next week with
  showers and storms possible starting later Monday night into
  Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 324 PM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024

Upper level low, centered over SW Wisconsin, will continue to drift
east and eventually northeast and begin to fill as 250 mb jet streak
exits and overall flow aloft begins to weaken. At the surface, a
cold front had slowed considerably, just now entering western
portions of IN with extensive cloud cover and an area of lighter
showers well in advance of it. Skies generally cleared back across
much of IL, but cu has started pop with convective temps around 80
being reached. Instability and mid level lapse rates remain rather
low and despite the infringement of the upper level energy little in
the way of new development has been noted in the cu field. Strongest
development has been across central Lower MI or further south into
southern IN/OH. Vis sat showing a line of enhanced cu from the
Michigan City area NNE to west of GRR. One shower did manage to
develop near Michigan City with little overall development
upwards. The initial cell has weakened, but another was trying
to develop on the SW flank of the original cell. CAMs have
handled the convection rather poorly today depicting greater
coverage east including some storms, but all that exists is a
weakening area of rain. If any storm can gain some height, a
narrow axis of 1000 J/KG DCAPE exists along the front which
could bring an isolated strong to locally severe gust. However,
have a lot of concerns that any of convection will be able to
attain those levels (as depicted by the newly developed
showers). SPC maintained the marginal risk along/east of IN-13
but suspect the greatest risk will remain well north. SWOMCD
also issued recently for mainly Lower MI with additional
details.

A dry holiday weekend appears more and more likely for most, if
not all of the area. A weak disturbance may move in from the
southwest on Saturday, but with moisture removed, should
struggle to produce any precip. While I suspect little in the
way of measurable precip will occur, maintained a slgt chc in
far NW areas Sat AM. Temperature wise, slightly below normal
highs expected Saturday (mid to upper 70s) with more seasonable
80s Sunday as upper level heights begin to temporarily increase.
Dewpoints will remain at comfortable levels.

Somewhat deeper trough approaches to start the new work week
with chances for showers and storms arriving possibly as early
as Monday afternoon in the NW, but moreso Monday night into
Tuesday. Thereafter, a series of troughs keep digging into the
Great Lakes, but not overly deep or "cold" as 500 mb heights are
580 dm or higher for the remainder of the forecast period.
Better moisture remains to the south so might not see any large
chances for showers and storms, but something to watch in the
coming days.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 153 AM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024

VFR to MVFR conditions expected at the TAF sites as we deal with
the last gasp from our exiting low pressure system. An upper
level trough will swing through this morning, which are likely
bring some MVFR ceilings and sprinkles to KSBN between 11-18z.
There could be some MVFR ceilings at KFWA between 15-18z today
associated with the same trough, however I am less confident in
the persistence as as much of the guidance keeps things around
3000 feet. I did a tempo for 2500 ft for now and left out a
mention of showers as the wave appears to weaken and lift
northeastward through the day. Light winds ranging from SW to NW
today behind the trough, then the upper level ridge keeps us dry
and VFR from the afternoon onwards.




&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Fisher
AVIATION...MCD