407
FXUS63 KIWX 070445
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
1245 AM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Generally quiet and seasonably warm conditions expected into
  early Monday.

- Chances for showers and thunderstorms increase Monday
  afternoon into Tuesday.

- Remnants of TC Beryl could bring rain and storms to SE parts
  of the area Wed afternoon into Thursday, but confidence is low
  on the degree of potential impacts.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 241 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024

A weakening upper level trough will continue to move NE over the
next 24 hours with skies slowly clearing tonight into Sunday. The
clouds and modest CAA have kept afternoon temps in check, mainly in
the 70s. Cu field has popped across much of the area with pocket of
cooler mid level temperatures with hints of lake shadow clearing out
any clouds. Overall quiet conditions are expected into at least
early Monday with temperatures moderating back to near/slightly
above normal for Sunday and Monday as a northern stream trough
begins to dig into the northern Plains Sunday and further deepens
into the upcoming week. A series of disturbances will move through
the trough but the proximity of high pressure to the east should
keep any precip away from the area until Monday afternoon at the
earliest.

An increasing low level flow, combined with closer proximity to the
trough, should bring at least a chance for showers and thunderstorms
possibly as early as Monday afternoon, but more likely Monday night
into Tuesday. As noted in the previous discussion, higher PWATs
could end up yielding a heavy rain threat depending on the coverage,
intensity and risk of training of convection as the overall trough
will be slow to move east (if at all) as it encounters and
eventually phases with the remnants of TC Beryl. The timing of this
phasing and location of the ridging remains somewhat in question
with regards to how far north the circulation comes into the Ohio
Valley. EC/GEM have been somewhat consistent on the energy reaching
southern IN and OH late Wed into Thursday with the 11 am EDT NHC
forecast seeming to support this to an extent (low center in
boot heel of MO 12Z on the 11th). GFS remains more suppressed,
resulting in the NBM being heavily influenced in this period
with only slgt chc pops. While the event is still several days
out and overall track is likely to change, have increased pops
with IND and ILN to high chc and even low end likely far SE.
EC/GEM do show, as expected, copious amounts of precip with this
feature that will need to be watched. While temperatures will
be near normal for much of the extended period, impacts from the
system late in the period could result in further changes.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1245 AM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024

High pressure and relatively dry air will remain over the region
through the period with VFR conditions expected. There is a very
low chance for isolated afternoon storms around KSBN but forcing
and available moisture/instability appear far too weak/low to
include in the TAF. Winds will also remain light through the
period.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Fisher
AVIATION...AGD