586
FXUS63 KIWX 110533
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
133 AM EDT Thu Jul 11 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Fog possible late tonight into the start of Thursday morning.

- Turning warm and humid with daily isolated to scattered
  afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Near 90 degree
  temperatures expected this weekend into early next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 724 PM EDT Wed Jul 10 2024

Skies will continue to clear, with NE areas possibly taking the
longest to clear out as the remnants of Beryl continue to shift
east. With clear skies, diminishing winds and a very moist
boundary layer (especially along and west of I-69) think some
ground fog concerns may sneak in overnight. Still finalizing
things with surrounding offices, but for now will likely have at
least patchy fog for most to maybe all of the area with
consideration for areas of fog for the NW half or so of the area
(roughly Monticello to Warsaw to Coldwater) where the heaviest
rain fell and greatest chance for clear skies and light winds
exists.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 130 PM EDT Wed Jul 10 2024

Wrn flank of remnant Beryl circulation is on the way out with
rapidly diminishing light rain expected across nrn/cntrl zones.
Clearing along with insolation drive destabilization over far swrn
zones could pop a few isolated showers and/or storms prior to sunset
within residual low level moisture plume however cam guidance
firmly holds this wwd across IL and will follow suit.

Drying continues short term Thursday as Beryl lifts out however
residual upstream mid level trough may yield a few showers and/or
storms far sw zones again Thu aftn pending degree of leftover
moisture present within destabilizing airmass.

Thereafter some degree of mid level trough persists across the Great
Lakes Fri on with daily insolation driven chances for additional
showers and storms. Difficult to discern a particular feature within
innocuous looking flow aloft to latch onto and will keep with
broad brushed, afternoon centered pops days 3-7. Otherwise
building thermal ridge into and through the wrn OH valley in
time will make for a return to warm and humid conditions by this
weekend and extending into the middle of next week before a
more meaningful cool down associated with cold frontal passage
occurs towards day 9 (Thu).

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 133 AM EDT Thu Jul 11 2024

Primary aviation concern is potential for fog later this morning
given mostly clear skies, calm winds, and residual surface
moisture. Latest concensus guidance (supported by area obs)
shows a lot of variability and not expecting widespread/dense
fog. KSBN still looks to have the better chance with brief IFR
possible. Chances are much lower at KFWA but introduced a TEMPO
5SM. Otherwise there is a very low risk for isolated storms
Thursday evening but confidence in coverage and timing is far
too low to mention in the TAF`s. Winds will remain light and
variable through the period.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Fisher
DISCUSSION...T
AVIATION...AGD