Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana
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812 FXUS63 KIWX 011035 AFDIWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 635 AM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - One last cool day today with clear skies & pleasant weather. Highs in the 70s. - Warmer Tuesday, but still less humid. Highs in the 80s. - Warm and humid Wednesday through Friday with several chances for showers and storms. Afternoon heat indices Wednesday near 100 degrees south of Highway 24. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 138 AM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024 A cool airmass over the area will start the day leaving very chilly early morning temperatures in the upper 40s to mid 50s in its wake. Temperatures will only reach the 70s today with few if any clouds under large scale subsidence. Lows again tonight will be chilly from 52 to 56 degrees. Return flow around the large high pressure area will mix out the shallow cool air early Tuesday and and bring much warmer air back into the area Tuesday. Diurnal rises are likely to exceed 30 degrees in some places. The return of high humidity will lag the initial warm air return and arrive Wednesday - and will be coincident with increasing chances for showers and storms. Challenges Wednesday through Friday includes timing and coverage of any storms, chances for heavy rain and probabilities for severe weather. Challenges also include the chance for heat indices to reach near 100 degrees Wednesday afternoon south of Highway 24. Warmer and humid conditions will return Wednesday through Friday accompanied by several chances for showers and storms. The airmass spreading back over the area later this week will contain high precipitable water values. GFS BUFKIT Soundings initially favor more of a tall & thin type of environment with CAPEs (instability <1000 J) supporting locally heavy rainfall. However, ahead of the front Friday, the atmosphere is more likely to be somewhat more conducive for severe storms with greater instability. Overall, feel chances for severe storms and flooding are rather low. Somewhat drier/less humid air will be over the area this weekend. The best chance for any storms will mainly be from the mid afternoons into the evenings with diurnal/daytime heating. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 635 AM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024 Very dry air throughout the column and strong subsidence/high pressure over the Great Lakes will ensure VFR conditions through the period. Light winds will steadily veer to the SE by this evening but remain 10 kts or less. High clouds increase overnight as the next trough approaches but no aviation impacts this period. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...None. OH...None. MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Skipper AVIATION...AGD