Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN
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027 FXUS63 KIND 060930 AFDIND Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 530 AM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Partly Cloudy Today. - Mostly Clear Tonight. - Rain chances return late Monday into Tuesday with the potential for tropical remnants later in the week. && .SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)... Issued at 233 AM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024 Surface analysis early this morning shows a strong and large area of high pressure centered over OK and KS. This strong high extended its influence from the high and northern plains to Indiana and the Ohio Valley. Water vapor imagery showed a broad trough in place across the CONUS, with subsidence in place over IL and Indiana. GOES16 shows clear skies over Indiana, but some high cloud was found over southern IL and SE MO. These clouds were dissipating upon approach as they approached the subsidence over Central Indiana. Today and Tonight... Quiet weather is expected today and tonight. The large surface high is expected to the push east and continue to dominate the weather across Central Indiana. The broad upper trough aloft will also remain in place. This will lead to continued weak westerly lower level flow and Pacific flow aloft. Forecast soundings today and tonight show a dry column, and the strong high at the surface is indicative of continued ongoing subsidence. Forecast soundings this afternoon suggest convective temperatures will be reached leading to SCT-BKN CU development during the peak heating hours. After peak heating is lost, a dry column is shown by the models which should lead to clear skies overnight. Meanwhile tonight the center of the strong surface high will reach Indiana and Ohio. Thus a partly cloudy day and mostly clear night will be expected. Weak westerly winds and minimal temperature advection will lead to seasonal temperatures, with today`s highs in the middle 80s and tonight`s lows in the low to middle 60s. && .LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)... Issued at 233 AM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024 Sunday Through Tuesday. The warming trend will continue into Monday as the broad high pressure that had been in place through the early weekend gradually begins to break down ahead of the next rain producing system. Plenty of sun combined will allow for temperatures to rise into the mid to upper 80s. With the high pressure nearly overhead, there will be little relief in terms of a breeze with near calm winds. There should be at least some diurnal cu during the mid to late afternoon hours which may provide some relief but with dewpoints only in the mid 60s, the overall heat threat is minimal. A broad trough will slowly exit the Central Plains late Monday night with rain likely late Monday evening through Tuesday. Models are suggesting a localized area of convergence along a weak cold front where higher precipitation amounts are likely, but there remains quite a bit of model spread as to where exactly that settles. Models have come into better agreement that the higher amounts should remain to the northwest of the forecast area into northern Illinois, but will continue to monitor the threat for heavy rain in the coming days. Wednesday Through Friday. Focus after Tuesday will be on a combination of a stalled front across the Ohio River and tropical moisture from the remnants of Hurricane Beryl. Models have been trending a more northerly track for the hurricane and a quicker ingestion into the jet stream which could bring remnant moisture to southern Indiana as early as Wednesday. This moisture then would combine with the stalled front to create localized heavy rain with the potential of 2-3 inches of rain between Wednesday and Thursday, but that threat looks to mainly be across northern Kentucky and far southern Indiana. There are a few ensemble members that bring heavier rain into south central Indiana, but those appear to still be outliers. Will keep low POPs for mid to late week across central Indiana, but otherwise will continue to monitor trends for any more of a northerly track which could lead to greater impacts for the forecast area. && .AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)... Issued at 525 AM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024 Impacts: - VFR conditions are expected. Discussion: High pressure will continue to build across Central Indiana today and tonight. Overall, little change in the ongoing forecast. The strong high will allow for clear skies this morning. Forecast soundings suggest diurnal cu development by early afternoon. Thus some SCT-BKN VFR CU clouds will be possible through the peak heating hours of the day. W/NW winds will be near 10kts. As heating is lost this evening, clear skies are expected to return. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Puma LONG TERM...White AVIATION...Puma