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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN
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940 FXUS63 KIND 070159 AFDIND Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 959 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Clear Tonight - Sunny and warmer Sunday - Rain chances return late Monday into Tuesday - Watching Wed into Thu for the remnants of Beryl to produce heavy rain and localized flooding in portions of the Ohio Valley && .FORECAST UPDATE... Issued at 958 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024 Following a pleasant and rather mild midsummer day...temperatures will continue to fall through the 70s across central Indiana this evening. Weak, yet broad surface high pressure currently aligned over the Ohio Valley will drift eastward to the Appalachians overnight...although the lack of any organized cyclone to our west will allow winds to become light and variable. With only a few cirrus clouds readings will drop at least 20 degrees from Saturday`s maxima...with low 60s expected for most locations, while mid-60s prevail inside Interstate 465 and around/south/west of Bloomington and Terre Haute. Expect patchy fog after midnight, especially south and east of Interstate 69 and along the Upper Wabash Valley where dewpoints will be a degree to two higher. && .SHORT TERM (This evening through Sunday)... Issued at 257 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024 Broad surface high pressure from Texas to the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys and southern Great Lakes along with a dry column per Hi-res model soundings has provided plenty of sunshine this afternoon with just some scattered to broken diurnal fair weather cu present on visible satellite loop and in obs. These clouds will dissipate around sunset leaving behind clear skies. Afternoon dew points in the lower to middle 60s will set a reasonable overnight low temperature forecast tonight as winds go very light to calm in ideal radiational cooling setup. The boundary layer. Sounds suggest the boundary layer will be too dry for fog save perhaps some very brief shallow ground fog toward daybreak. The surface high will shift to the east on Sunday. However, winds will be very light southwest with the weak pressure gradient. Again look for just some scattered diurnal cu Sunday afternoon per the cu development progs. Mixing and solar heating will allow temperatures to warm a touch more to the middle to upper 80s. Confidence is good regarding temperatures to within a couple of degrees. There is a very small chance that if greater cloud coverage occurs, temperatures may be a few degrees below forecasted highs. && .LONG TERM (Sunday night through Saturday)... Issued at 257 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024 Broad upper troughing remains over the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region through the majority of the period placing Indiana within southwesterly flow just ahead of the trough axis. Multiple waves riding around the trough next week in addition to Gulf moisture directed northeastward into the Ohio Valley will bring daily chances for showers and storms beginning late Monday. Watching the potential for flooding midweek as the remnants of Hurricane Beryl are directed northeastward into the Ohio Valley. The warmest day of the week will likely occur on Monday as broad high pressure that had been in place through the early weekend gradually begins to break down ahead of the next rain producing system. Plenty of sun combined will allow for temperatures to rise into the mid to the lower 90s. With the high pressure nearly overhead, there will be little relief in terms of a breeze with near calm winds. There should be at least some diurnal cu during the mid to late afternoon hours which may provide some relief but with dewpoints only in the mid 60s, the overall heat threat is minimal. A broad trough will slowly exit the Central Plains late Monday night with rain likely late Monday evening through Tuesday. Models are suggesting a localized area of convergence along a weak cold front where higher precipitation amounts are likely, but there remains quite a bit of model spread as to where exactly that settles. Models have come into better agreement that the higher amounts should remain to the northwest of the forecast area into northern Illinois, but will continue to monitor the threat for heavy rain in the coming days. Central Indiana and much of the region will remain in a southwesterly flow pattern aloft with broad troughing just to the northwest and upper ridging over the Southeast. With a quasi- stationary front over the Ohio Valley during this time, a constant feed of tropical moisture will be streaming into the region bringing daily rainfall chances. The main focus next week will be where the energy and moisture from Beryl will be directed as this area will likely see an extended period of potentially heavy rainfall sometime Wednesday into Thursday. Models have been trending a more northerly track for the hurricane and a quicker ingestion into the jet stream which could bring remnant moisture to southern Indiana as early as Wednesday. This moisture then would combine with the stalled front to create localized heavy rain with the potential of 2-3 inches of rain between Wednesday and Thursday. Latest models runs show South Central Indiana to Northern Kentucky as the area most likely to receive the heaviest rainfall; however since this event is still several days away, there is still time for the axis of heaviest rainfall to shift. All of Central Indiana should pay close attention to the forecast through the week for any changes regarding the track, timing, and flooding potential from the remnants of Beryl. Kept the forecast on a more pessimistic side Tuesday through Thursday keeping skies cloudier than what guidance suggests and lowered high temperatures toward the 10th-25th NBM percentile, in the upper 70s to low 80s. Lowest temperatures will be where heaviest precipitation is. After coordinating with surrounding NWS offices, have increased PoPs to likely category Wednesday into Thursday for areas along and south of I-70. This will likely be tweaked in the coming days, but for now this a reasonable scenario to put in the forecast. Drier and warmer conditions are likely by Friday and into the weekend; however confidence will remain low on specifics until guidance gets a better handle for how Beryl and the stalled out front will evolve in the prior days. && .AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)... Issued at 623 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024 Impacts: - Brief fog possible at outlying terminals near daybreak Sunday Discussion: Coverage of diurnal cu is gradually decreasing with all cu likely dissipating shortly after sunset. The rest of the night will see mainly clear skies with brief patchy fog possible at KBMG/KHUF/KLAF predawn through daybreak Sunday. Return flow will develop on Sunday as the center of the high shifts east. Expect light S/SW winds during the afternoon with diurnal VFR cu developing again. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ UPDATE...AGM SHORT TERM...MK LONG TERM...CM AVIATION...Ryan