954
FXUS63 KIND 300543
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
143 AM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cooler and less humid Sunday and Monday
- Heat returns on Tuesday and Wednesday
- Rain/storm chances return Wednesday onward

&&

.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
Issued at 143 AM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024

Departing low-amplitude shortwave trough has nudged a cold front
into central Indiana with cooler/drier air now moving in. Much less
humid conditions are expected today with temperatures 10-15 degrees
cooler than 24-hours prior, about about 10 degrees below normal for
the end of June.

The subsident portion of the upper flow pattern leading to positive
MSLP anomalies will result in optimal radiative conditions tonight
and unusually cool temperatures for this time of year. Upper 40s to
low 50s are expected.

&&

.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Issued at 143 AM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024

Monday and Monday Night...

Monday will be a continuation of the low amplitude surface ridge,
but with a slight uptick in 850-700mb dew points within easterly low
to mid level moisture advection. There should be enough elevated
moisture for isolated to scattered diurnal cu development Monday
afternoon, but otherwise conditions will be a carbon copy of Sunday
with a surface profile of around 80/50 across central Indiana. By
Monday night, winds will veer towards SE/S helping buoy overnight
lows, of which are expected to bottom out in the mid to upper 50s.


Tuesday Onward...

The next phase of the this pattern will arrive mid week, with broad
ridging developing aloft. By Tuesday, 850mb temps rise by about 5-10
degrees, which under full sun and efficient mixing corresponds to
highs in the mid to upper 80s. The primary axis of warm air will
then arrive Wednesday, with highs expected to be back into the 90s.
This upper ridge will continue to remain aloft keeping temperatures
above normal through the end of next week.

Even though upper level ridging will be in place across the Ohio
Valley, precipitation chances will still increase as a succession of
weak waves develop within broad upper level diffluence in the right
entrance region of the upper jet. This should lead to variable
thunderstorm chances Wednesday through Friday, until a frontal
boundary moves through late week, decreasing surface moisture.

The synoptic pattern is becoming much more consistently realized
within ensemble member, leading to greater confidence in generalized
hot and rainy stretch from Wednesday through Friday. However, the
finer details regarding specific timing and magnitude remain low as
there continues to be greater variance in surface wave location and
propagation speed.


Public Awareness Statement:

Storm chances exist before, during, and after the 4th of July
holiday. There is a chance that inclement weather interrupts holiday
plans. With that said, stay tuned for forecast updates as confidence
increases and we refine key details (timing, intensity, etc).

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 124 AM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024

Impacts:

- None

Discussion:

A cold front is moving through central Indiana now and will cause
winds to shift to northwesterly. Until the front comes through there
could be a few patches of shallow ground fog, given the significant
moisture and modest radiative conditions developing. Clear
conditions will return and VFR is expected to prevail. Some gusts
approaching 20 knots are possible midday and through the afternoon.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRB
LONG TERM...Updike
AVIATION...BRB