015
FXUS63 KILX 031704
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1204 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There will be some strong to severe thunderstorm potential
  (20-40%chance) south of I-70 today, along with locally heavy
  rainfall.

- Independence Day will be a bit cooler than normal, though that
  will be offset by muggy 70s dew points. Though there are 50-60%
  POPs through the day, the whole day won`t be rainy. However,
  firework festivities may be impacted.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 945 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

Late this morning, an MCV is noted just southwest of Effingham
tracking east and expected to reach the state line around noon
today. Showers and a couple isolated rumbles of thunder will
continue in the vicinity of this feature through the rest of the
morning. Further north, a weak trough near the Illinois River is
forcing a couple weak, isolated showers. Weak convergence along
the front and being near the diurnal minimum in instability should
keep this activity from becoming any more widespread over the
next few hours. Temps are on track to warm into the mid to upper
80s north of I-70 and lower 90s south.

Deubelbeiss

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 245 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

Currently, there is some stratiform rain across areas west of I-55.
This should start to subside in the coming hours. Based on radar
estimates, some areas in our forecast area, west of the Illinois
River, have received upwards of 2 inches.

As the front is expected to exit the SE CWA in the mid to late
afternoon today, storms may refire along the front. These storms
also have the potential to have strong, gusty winds but the CAMs
continue to indicate that this new CI will be just south/east of the
forecast area. The furthest northern extent showers/t`storms could
go would be along and south of I-72. Chances of these showers and
thunderstorms occuring in our CWA is 20-40 percent.

Independence Day, tomorrow, will be slightly cooler than normal
which would be great for outdoor celebrations, but have dewpoints in
the mid 70s. There are still several chances for showers and
thunderstorms through the day. There is decent MUCAPE south of I-72
this day (1000-2000 J/kg) and DCAPE values (1000-1500 J/kg)
supportive of strong wind gusts in the stronger cells that develop.
The morning into afternoon has 50-70% POPs (increasing with southern
CWA extent) being primarily scattered across central and
southeastern Illinois. The whole day won`t be a washout, there is
some break in the activity throughout the afternoon into early
evening. From 00-06z Friday (7pm Thurs-1am Fri), when firework
displays are set to take place, there is a 30-60% chance of new
development. The HRRR/NAMNest are showing the redevelopment not
moving into central and southeastern Illinois until after 03z Friday
(10pm Thursday). However, the location of these cells will be
difficult to know this early since they look to be scattered.

Starting Friday, a brief ridging will set up ahead of the next
system that will bring POPs into the area again Sunday. Temperatures
through the weekend will be pleasant, with highs in the low to mid
80s and lows in the mid to upper 60s. Friday will have the coolest
highs (upper 70s to mid 80s) out of the extended period.

Copple

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1204 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

A slow moving cold front will settle south of I-70 and serve as the
main focus for showers and thunderstorms the rest of today. Some
patchy lingering MVFR ceilings in place now will scatter back to VFR
over the next hour or so and remain VFR through the rest of today
and tonight. The front will lift back north slightly late tonight
into Thursday morning as an upper level disturbance moves across
the region. Showers and MVFR ceilings will spread back north as
well, reaching the I-72 corridor mid to late Thursday morning.

Deubelbeiss

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$