944
FXUS63 KILX 040732
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
232 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...
- Slightly below normal temperatures settle in today, with highs
  in the low to mid 80s for the next several days. Normals for the
  first week of July are in the upper 80s for central and
  southeaster Illinois.

- Periods of showers and thunderstorms today. 60-80% POPs south of
  I-74 this morning. A dry period this afternoon and evening,
  with the next round coming in after 10pm (40-60% chance).

- A mostly dry weekend ahead. The next potential for precipitation
  comes Sunday afternoon (30-40% chance) into the new week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 232 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

Happy Independence Day! Comfortable temperatures settle in today
behind the departing cold front, with highs in the low to mid 80s.
More rain chances are on the books for today. The positive part of
it is that not the entire day will be rainy. In fact, the dry part
of the day for central and southeastern Illinois is during the
afternoon into the evening hours, when celebrations are taking
place. This morning, there is a 60-80% chance of showers and
thunderstorms primarily for areas south of I-74. POPs significantly
drop for the afternoon and early evening (20-40%). The second round
of precipitation today comes around 10pm tonight, when POPs rebound
to 40-60%.

There are PWATS near 1.5 inches for today. QPF amounts aren`t
insane, with trace to 0.2 inches north of I-72 and 0.5 to 1.3 inches
south of I-72. The highest totals today are more likely to occur
south of I-70. However, the 00z HREF shows only a 10% chance of
greater than an inch south of I-70 and 50-60% chance of greater
than 0.10 inches forecast area wide.

After today, ridging builds over the Midwest, keeping temperatures
slightly below normal for the extended period. CPC has us in a near
to leaning below normal temperature outlook for the next 6-10 days.
Normals for the first week of July are in the upper 80s for central
and southeaster Illinois. HIghs through the extended are in the low
to mid 80s. Lows are expected range in the 60s.

Rain chances return Sunday afternoon into Monday as a weak
disturbance passes through. The highest chances occur during the day
Monday with 40-50% POPs.

Stay safe this 4th of July!

Copple

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1142 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

A thick layer of mid-level cloud cover at around 12,000ft will
persist through the night before a cluster of thunderstorms
currently developing across southern Nebraska into Kansas spreads
E/NE into central Illinois early Thursday morning. 00z CAMs show
an appreciable spread concerning the exact track of the
convection...with the bulk of the models preferring a more
southern track along and south of the I-70 corridor. The HRRR
remains the furthest north, and based on the current location of
the stationary frontal boundary from south of KIKK to near KUIN,
think it has the best handle on the situation. Have therefore
added predominant thunder at KSPI between 12z and 15z and at
KDEC/KCMI between 13z and 17z. Further north, confidence for
thunder is lower, so have only gone with showers at KPIA and KBMI.
Both NAM and HRRR forecast soundings suggest ceilings lowering to
MVFR during the precip and remaining there for a couple hours
afterwards. Have scattered the MVFR ceilings at all terminals
after the 18z-21z time period. Winds will be light/variable
through the entire 06z TAF period.

Barnes

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$