563
FXUS61 KILN 081409
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1009 AM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will persist across the area today offering dry
weather and warmer temperatures. A chance for precipitation will
return as a weakening front approaches the area late tonight
and Tuesday. Moisture from the remnants of Beryl will track
northeast across the region Tuesday night through Wednesday
night providing an increased threat for precipitation.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Scattered to broken high clouds will continue to stream into the
area from the southwest through the day. In addition, expect to
see at least some cumulus development. Should still see a good
bit of sun in most places. Forecast highs still seem reasonable.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
A northern stream short wave will shear out to the northeast
across the Great Lakes tonight. Mid and high level clouds will
increase but with dry low levels any pcpn will hold off until
Tuesday. Low temperatures to range from the mid 60s to lower
70s.

Remnants of Beryl in the form of a southern stream wave and
surface low to eject northeast from the Southern Plains into
Lower MS Valley by Tuesday evening. Moisture to increase ahead
of this system with PWATs approaching 2 inches across the
southwest late in the day. Shower and thunderstorm chances to
increase from the southwest in the afternoon. High temperatures
to range from the lower 80s northwest to the lower 90s
southeast.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The remnants of Beryl will approach the Ohio Valley on Tuesday
night/Wednesday morning. Rain is likely to arrive from the southwest
on Tuesday night and overspread northeast as the closed low and an
upper level trough move in. While Beryl takes on more extratropical
characteristics on Wednesday, a surface cold front will be
accelerated in from the west by the closed surface low. Overall rain
chances peak on Wednesday when the strongest forcing and PWATs
overlap east/northeast of the surface low. Rain chances then dropoff
Wednesday night into Thursday behind the cold front and upper level
forcing. Currently, overall flood concerns remain on the lower side
since the remnants of Beryl are likely to be progressive.

Dry conditions and southerly flow return by Friday which will lead
to increasing heat and humidity into the weekend. Forecast highs
reach back into the upper 80s and low 90s by Saturday. Afternoon
rain chances may also increase this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Surface high pressure will remain in place across the region
today. A few cu will likely develop through late morning and
into this afternoon with increasing high level clouds tonight.


OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities possible Tuesday night
into Thursday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...Campbell
AVIATION...AR